160
FXUS63 KMPX 201008
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA UNTIL 9 AM.
COLDEST WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -25 TO -30 SOUTH AND WEST.
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND
THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
MID LEVEL STRATUS IS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK ABOVE
ZERO. MOST OF SOUTHERN MN REMAINS CLEAR, BUT TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE AREAS AREN'T COOLING AS QUICKLY AS THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. STILL, WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -25, SO
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. THE STRATUS THICKNESS IS ABOUT 1000
FT DEEP, SO IT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOW COOLING AND MAY LEAD
TO STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAWN.
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE COUNTRY. THE
WARMING PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS FLUSHED OUT
FROM THE CENTER OF THE NATION, BUT EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNDAY,
WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN MONDAY. A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF US. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FIRST FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ONE WILL
GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT COULD SEE THEM BEING INCREASED IN
COMING FORECAST CYCLES. AS THAT ONE APPROACHES, STRONGER
WESTERLY WIND SHOULD ADVECT THOSE MILD TEMPS IN. THE THIRD
SYSTEM HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE AREA FOR
MIDWEEK. THIS APPEARS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE AS IT
DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPAWNS A
DEEPENING LOW OVER SD, IA, AND INTO IL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT IN ITS NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT COULD BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN WARM
AIR ALOFT AND NEAR-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED,
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND IT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INTENSIFY. THE TIMING OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT, BECAUSE
AS WE'VE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR, IT'S POSSIBLE THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP TO OUR EAST. THE TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT FOR P-TYPE. AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT STC, MSP, RNH, AND
EAU. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER AS THESE FLURRIES CHANCES INCREASE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR MVFR AT THESE SITES BEFORE RISING
BACK UP AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...CHANCE FOR SOME VFR FLURRIES THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO LOW VFR AND NEAR MVFR LEVELS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-15G20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-REDWOOD-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page