532
FXUS63 KMPX 201704
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA UNTIL 9 AM.
COLDEST WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -25 TO -30 SOUTH AND WEST.
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND
THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
MID LEVEL STRATUS IS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK ABOVE
ZERO. MOST OF SOUTHERN MN REMAINS CLEAR, BUT TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE AREAS AREN'T COOLING AS QUICKLY AS THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. STILL, WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -25, SO
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. THE STRATUS THICKNESS IS ABOUT 1000
FT DEEP, SO IT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOW COOLING AND MAY LEAD
TO STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAWN.
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE COUNTRY. THE
WARMING PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS FLUSHED OUT
FROM THE CENTER OF THE NATION, BUT EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNDAY,
WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN MONDAY. A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF US. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FIRST FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ONE WILL
GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT COULD SEE THEM BEING INCREASED IN
COMING FORECAST CYCLES. AS THAT ONE APPROACHES, STRONGER
WESTERLY WIND SHOULD ADVECT THOSE MILD TEMPS IN. THE THIRD
SYSTEM HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE AREA FOR
MIDWEEK. THIS APPEARS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE AS IT
DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPAWNS A
DEEPENING LOW OVER SD, IA, AND INTO IL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT IN ITS NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT COULD BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN WARM
AIR ALOFT AND NEAR-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED,
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND IT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INTENSIFY. THE TIMING OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT, BECAUSE
AS WE'VE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR, IT'S POSSIBLE THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP TO OUR EAST. THE TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT FOR P-TYPE. AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THIS MORNING'S STRATUS DECK IS LONG GONE, LEAVING US WITH CLEAR
SKIES WITH A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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