215
FXUS63 KMPX 202310
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND THE
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
AFTER 100+ HOURS OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS, THE COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS ARE A MUCH
WELCOMED SIGHT ACROSS THE REGION! AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, HOWEVER WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN ABOVE HEADLINE
CRITERIA. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA (-15 TO -25). FURTHER EAST (INCLUDING THE TC METRO) WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP TO AROUND -10.
THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE, SUCH THAT MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR MILD PACIFIC INFLUENCED AIR TO ADVECT
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A MORE PROMINENT
THERMAL RIDGE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND SUPPORT A
MULTI-DAY WARMING TREND. FRIDAY'S HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S (ABOVE FREEZING!) ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE THE WARM UP PRODUCES WIDESPREAD 40S MONDAY, TUESDAY,
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL
LIKELY MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 50 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE DATA THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE NORTHERN STREAM/NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER TRACK TO
THE EAST OF THE MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH PERHAPS NEAR MISS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, THAT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER WEST
IN LOOKING AT THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, SUCH THAT THE NBM
HAS PRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW
CLIPPERS TO WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. EACH WILL FEATURE VARYING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER EACH INDIVIDUAL PERIOD IS
SOMEWHAT OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS
TO P-TYPE. THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
PROMOTE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER EACH
CLIPPER WILL HAVE A COLD AIR COMPONENT WRAPPING IN, WHICH MAY YIELD
A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
THE GENERAL CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TRACK OF THE
CLIPPERS WILL BRING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. NBM FEATURES 20-
30 POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHER POPS, BETWEEN 30-40% EXPAND OVER MORE OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, WHICH APPEARS TO BE "SOUTHERN-MOST" TRACKING CLIPPER.
LONG TERM/EXTENDED PERIOD DISCUSSION...
FOR CONTEXT: CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY IN
THE TWIN CITIES (MSP) AS WE RACE TOWARDS THE SPRING EQUINOX ON MARCH
20TH. TODAY'S AVERAGE HIGH IS 30F - BUT IT'LL CLIMB 7 DEGREES OVER
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS TO 37F ON MARCH 7TH AND ANOTHER 7 DEGREES TO 44F ON
MARCH 20TH.
WHAT'S IN THE PIPELINE FOR WEEKS 2 & 3? THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION I'LL
DO MY BEST TO ADDRESS. THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF QUIET & MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OR SO OF MARCH. MY INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE
WE'LL USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE FIRST WEEK WITH OUR DRY PATTERN
CONTINUING TO HOLD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED
IN THE LATEST 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK BUT FURTHER SUPPORT CAN BE FOUND
ON WHAT'S ONGOING UPSTREAM & ELSEWHERE IN THE GLOBAL WEATHER
PATTERN. ALOFT, CURRENT TELECONNECTION CONFIGURATION WOULD
SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN
EARLY MARCH WHILE A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST -
THIS FEATURE PLAYS A KEY ROLE AS IT SHOULD RETROGRADE FURTHER
NORTH/WEST AND ALLOW TROUGHING TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR MID-MARCH. THIS EVOLUTION HAS VARIED SUPPORT FROM
TELECONNECTIONS & MJO PROGRESSION. A CHANCE FOR A STORM OR TWO
WOULD APPEAR FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH IF WE'RE ABLE TO
STRING TOGETHER A HEALTHY WAVE. A RATHER STRONG A +PNA WILL TURN
TO A NEUTRAL OR EVEN A WEAK -PNA WHILE WE MAINTAIN A -EPO. THIS
SHOULD GIVE SUPPORT TO AN ALASKAN RIDGE UPSTREAM. IT'S NOT AN
ARCTIC COLD SCENARIO BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE SURPRISING... WHICH LIKELY MEANS 20S & 30S AT THAT POINT.
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE AT THE EVOLUTION BUT WINTER ISN'T DONE JUST
YET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLEAR SKY AND VFR THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE THE
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE NW TO W AND FAIRLY LIGHT THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SW OR
SSW DIRECTION. AFTERNOON WINDS COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL CALM NEAR SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
KMSP...GUSTY WINDS FROM A SSW DIRECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
CROSSWIND ON THE PARALLELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH/STRUS
AVIATION...NDC
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