020
FXUS63 KMPX 210757
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
157 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND THE
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, THERE WERE A FEW
SIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION, AND THIS IS A SIGN OF THE WARM
AIR THAT IS TO COME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, BRINGING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25,
IT WON'T FEEL THAT WARM OUT TODAY AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 20S. THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WARM
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION, APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH SNOW WE'VE MELTED THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS IS A DRIER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH MEANS THAT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S, WHICH DOESN'T MELT SNOW
AS EFFICIENTLY AS IF THEY WERE IN THE LOW 40S. BUT, THIS SNOW IS
DRY AND THE SUN ANGLE IS INCREASING NOW THAT IT'S LATE FEBRUARY,
SO IT SHOULD STILL SETTLE AND MELT AWAY. FOR THAT REASON, DID
BLEND IN SOME HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S, WITH 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
ASIDE FROM THE TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN OR SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN, BUT AS
ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS LOW PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST, SO ONLY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW
MENTION.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS,
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS A SMATTERING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE
MONDAY/NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE THE MOST LIKELY TIME RANGES FOR
PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR. SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS PICK UP IN THE MORNING FROM A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASED WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
KMSP...GUSTY WINDS FROM A SW DIRECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
CROSSWIND ON THE PARALLELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC
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