114
FXUS63 KMPX 211143
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND THE
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, THERE WERE A FEW
SIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION, AND THIS IS A SIGN OF THE WARM
AIR THAT IS TO COME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, BRINGING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25,
IT WON'T FEEL THAT WARM OUT TODAY AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 20S. THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WARM
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION, APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH SNOW WE'VE MELTED THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS IS A DRIER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH MEANS THAT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S, WHICH DOESN'T MELT SNOW
AS EFFICIENTLY AS IF THEY WERE IN THE LOW 40S. BUT, THIS SNOW IS
DRY AND THE SUN ANGLE IS INCREASING NOW THAT IT'S LATE FEBRUARY,
SO IT SHOULD STILL SETTLE AND MELT AWAY. FOR THAT REASON, DID
BLEND IN SOME HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S, WITH 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
ASIDE FROM THE TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN OR SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN, BUT AS
ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS LOW PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST, SO ONLY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW
MENTION.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS,
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS A SMATTERING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE
MONDAY/NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE THE MOST LIKELY TIME RANGES FOR
PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT GENERALLY NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED (POSSIBLY IN WESTERN WI SATURDAY MORNING). WINDS TO
REMAIN FROM THE S TO SSW, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE TO
START INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
KMSP...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH THE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONS THAT BECOME MORE SW
(I.E. 220-230) MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON
PUSH, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
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