017
FXUS63 KMPX 211735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND THE
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, THERE WERE A FEW
SIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION, AND THIS IS A SIGN OF THE WARM
AIR THAT IS TO COME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, BRINGING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25,
IT WON'T FEEL THAT WARM OUT TODAY AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 20S. THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WARM
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION, APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH SNOW WE'VE MELTED THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS IS A DRIER
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH MEANS THAT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S, WHICH DOESN'T MELT SNOW
AS EFFICIENTLY AS IF THEY WERE IN THE LOW 40S. BUT, THIS SNOW IS
DRY AND THE SUN ANGLE IS INCREASING NOW THAT IT'S LATE FEBRUARY,
SO IT SHOULD STILL SETTLE AND MELT AWAY. FOR THAT REASON, DID
BLEND IN SOME HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S, WITH 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
ASIDE FROM THE TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN OR SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN, BUT AS
ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS LOW PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST, SO ONLY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW
MENTION.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS,
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS A SMATTERING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE
MONDAY/NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE THE MOST LIKELY TIME RANGES FOR
PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 18Z PERIOD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE PERIOD CONTINUES. SSW WINDS SUSTAIN BETWEEN
10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS. WINDS
RELAX THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...SSW WINDS BETWEEN 200-220 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25KTS. CLOSELY MONITORING THE DATA FOR CROSSWIND
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH HI-RES CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
PREVAILING FROM 230/240 IS LESS LIKELY, SO AM OPTIMISTIC THAT
THE SETUP STAYS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A CROSSWIND SCENARIO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TRAFFIC WINDOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...STRUS
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