547
FXUS63 KMPX 212323
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S CONTINUE
MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE
CURRENTLY IS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN, THINGS ARE WARMING NICELY THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE ALL LOCATIONS ARE WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY,
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA HAVE THE LARGEST GAIN WITH MOST
SITES 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DESPITE WARMER AIR
TEMPS, GUSTY WINDS ARE MAKING IT FEEL CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS. SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A SNEAK PEEK OF WHAT IS TO COME
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THINGS WILL RAMP UP MORE ON SUNDAY AS A
THERMAL RIDGE MOVES A MASS OF WARM AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PACIFIC. AS ALLUDED TO IN OUR PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE DRIER GIVEN ITS SOURCE. MOST OF OUR SNOWPACK IS STILL
LIKELY TO MELT AWAY, BUT HOW QUICKLY IT DOES SO WILL LARGELY
IMPACT HOT WARM THINGS GET. IF THE SNOW MELTS MORE QUICKLY, WE
COULD EASILY SEE MULTIPLE SITES REACH THEIR FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY
OF THE YEAR. IF THE SNOW STICKS A LITTLE LONGER, ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT SLIGHTLY COOLER. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S) MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF WHAT IS OUR NEXT TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TERMS OF WEATHER- MAKERS.
TAKING THIS TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, NBM
POPS CONTINUE TO BE 40% MAX AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. PRIOR TO THIS, A FEW OTHER DISTURBANCES
COULD SQUEEZE TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS, BUT WEDNESDAY'S SIGNAL IS THE STRONGEST AT THIS
TIME. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH ALL THREE OF THESE EVENTS CAN BE SEEN
IN SEVERAL TIME PERIODS OF LOW (20-30%) POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TIMING APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST HINDRANCE AT THIS TIME. POP
CHANCES ASIDE, P-TYPE COULD BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY AND RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES AT NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY COME TO FRUITION VIA A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE REMOVAL OF FREEZING RAIN MENTIONS BECAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND ARE ON THE BACK END OF A WARM
UP. SO ALL IN ALL, CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE RIPE FOR ANY SORT OF
ICE ACCUMULATION TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT QPF SETUP. THE BULK OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, AND THAT IS THE ONE WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MORE SNOW, YOU'LL HAVE TO
KEEP WAITING, BUT THERE ARE HINTS FOR A POTENTIAL SWITCH-UP
COME EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CLEAR SKY OR HIGH VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT NOT AS
GUSTY.
KMSP... SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THE
GUSTS WILL FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET REDUCING THE AVIATION IMPACT
FOR CROSSWINDS ON THE PARALLELS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...NDC
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