212
FXUS63 KMPX 220841
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
241 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S CONTINUE
MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE
CURRENTLY IS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK
ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERMAL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND
LOOKS BEAUTIFUL FOR LATER FEBRUARY, THOUGH IF YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER
SAY GOODBYE TO ALL OR MOST OF WHAT WE HAVE ON THE GROUND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT A FEW LOW 40S
VALUES ARE LIKELY IN WESTERN MN ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. HIGHS
INCREASE SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WITH THE LOCATIONS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE NEARING 50.
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, IT WILL BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR A WALK OUTSIDE IF YOU DON'T MIND SOME SLUSH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY CLIMB STARTING IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT AND THEN SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT (OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE FEBRUARY)! WHILE NOT BY
MUCH, MONDAY AND TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MN NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUFFALO RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S, WHILE AREAS ELSEWHERE WILL
"ONLY" BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AS
YOU CAN SEE, WE SHOULD MELT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR SNOWPACK
PRETTY QUICKLY INTO NEXT WEEK. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DOES
EXIST WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THESE PERIODS.
UNDER-PREDICTED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
DURING THE DAY. PRECIP-WISE THESE SHORTWAVES DON'T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. LOW PWATS, WEAK LIFT, AND STRUGGLES TO DEEPLY
SATURATE THE VERTICAL COLUMN ALL SUGGEST LIGHT PRECIP RATES, IF
ANYTHING. CURRENTLY HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND 20% WITH THE
MOST LIKELY P-TYPE AS RAIN.
OUR "BEST" CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST MODELS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SLIDING THROUGH. MODEL TIMING AND
LOCATION DIFFERENCES HAVE LED TO A SLIGHT SMEARING OF 30% POPS
DURING THE TIMEFRAME BUT POPS SHOULD INCREASE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. PRECIP TYPE IS
ALSO IN QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP BEGINS DURING THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST OVER 0.1" OF QPF IS POSSIBLE, THUS PEOPLE COULD BE WAKING UP
TO AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER,
LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY BRINGING POPS BACK INTO THE EQUATION. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE ALSO A GREATER POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND AS A
BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CLEAR SKY TO HIGH CLOUD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WERE GUSTY
EARLIER TODAY, BUT HAVE NOW CALMED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED GUSTS UP AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WSW
OR SSW WIND AT TIMES.
KMSP...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER AND
PROVIDE LESS OF A CROSSWIND RISK FOR THE PARALLELS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC
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