854
FXUS63 KMPX 221812
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1212 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S CONTINUE
MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE
CURRENTLY IS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK
ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERMAL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS BEAUTIFUL FOR LATER FEBRUARY, THOUGH IF
YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER SAY GOODBYE TO ALL OR MOST OF WHAT WE HAVE
ON THE GROUND. HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BUT A FEW LOW 40S VALUES ARE LIKELY IN WESTERN MN ALONG
THE BUFFALO RIDGE. HIGHS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE LOCATIONS
NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE NEARING 50. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, IT WILL BE A GREAT WEEKEND FOR A WALK
OUTSIDE IF YOU DON'T MIND SOME SLUSH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
SUBSTANTIALLY CLIMB STARTING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
TONIGHT AND THEN SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT
(OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE FEBRUARY)! WHILE NOT BY MUCH, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE COMING
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUFFALO RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER 50S, WHILE AREAS ELSEWHERE WILL "ONLY" BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE
SHOULD MELT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR SNOWPACK PRETTY QUICKLY
INTO NEXT WEEK. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THESE PERIODS. UNDER-PREDICTED CLOUD
COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER DURING THE DAY. PRECIP-WISE
THESE SHORTWAVES DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE. LOW PWATS, WEAK LIFT,
AND STRUGGLES TO DEEPLY SATURATE THE VERTICAL COLUMN ALL SUGGEST
LIGHT PRECIP RATES, IF ANYTHING. CURRENTLY HAVE POPS MAXING OUT
AROUND 20% WITH THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE AS RAIN.
OUR "BEST" CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST MODELS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SLIDING THROUGH. MODEL
TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES HAVE LED TO A SLIGHT SMEARING OF
30% POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME BUT POPS SHOULD INCREASE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO IN QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP
BEGINS DURING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW IS
MORE LIKELY. GUIDANCE SUGGEST OVER 0.1" OF QPF IS POSSIBLE,
THUS PEOPLE COULD BE WAKING UP TO AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
POPS BACK INTO THE EQUATION. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE
ALSO A GREATER POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND AS A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD
AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OUT OF THE S/SW WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10
KFT. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (AXN/STC) SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAF.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV
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