760
FXUS63 KMPX 230854
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM UP CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE
CURRENTLY IS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2025
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MN AND WI HAVE SLOWED THE FALL OF
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN HAVE
MANAGED TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LARGELY IN THE 30S WITH
EVEN DXX AND CNB ABOVE 40 EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING
RETURNS WITHIN THESE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MN WITH THE AWOS IN MVE
EVEN REPORTING LIGHT DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS. MOST
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE TO OUR EAST LATER THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY
TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM
LATE FEBRUARY DAY. IN FACT, HIGHS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AT LEAST 40S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHWESTERN MN
AND AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS WITH
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 50. IN FACT, FOR THE PROJECTED WARMEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) PLACES IN THIS REGION COULD EVEN GET
CLOSE TO 60. DUE TO TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
HAVE BLENDED IN THE 75TH AND EVEN SOME 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE QUITE WARM; LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD MOSTLY BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LIMITING FLURRY CHANCES TO OUR
WI COUNTIES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING
MONDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE, MODELS DO
DEVELOP LIGHT QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN. THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS
WHAT LOOKS LIKE CELLULAR PRECIP SIGNATURES WITH SOME NON-ZERO MUCAPE
NEARBY. PERHAPS SOUTHERN MN COULD SEE SOME BUILDING CUMULUS AND
MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON? WE'LL HAVE TO SEE.
CURRENTLY HAVE 20-30% POPS MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT AREAL COVERAGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM ALL SHOW WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MN WITH AN AREA OF
PRECIP FORMING NORTH OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF WHEN THE
PRECIP OCCURS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT
BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES NEAR FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THIS,
RAIN THAT HAPPENS INITIALLY COULD SEE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN WI
WHERE PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE EXITING TO OUR
EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY'S FORECAST WILL ALSO BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR AS GUIDANCE
FAVORS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFF
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, THE BIGGER SIGNAL FOR US IS STRONG WINDS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS EPS MEMBERS HAVE
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR MSP LATER FRIDAY WITH EVEN A FEW
MEMBERS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 MPH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WINDS
THIS STRONG WOULD REQUIRE HEADLINES AND PRESENT POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. COLD AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. WE ALSO LOOK TO
DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THOUGH, WE MAY NOT STAY DRY FOR TOO LONG AS LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES HINT "TROUGHINESS" SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
FOR STC, CAMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ON FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN
12-16Z THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A MODESTLY SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CAST UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP. HAVE WENT WITH
A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WITH MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
LLWS OF 40-45 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST MN TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.
KMSP...HAVE OMITTED ANY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR MENTIONS IN THE TAF
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST VALUES FOR WIND SHEAR GENERALLY LOOK
TO BE TOO LOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG
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