028
FGUS73 KMPX 131609
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-282359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1109 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
...THE SPRING FLOOD THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS YEAR...
THIS IS OUR THIRD AND FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK THIS YEAR.
THE AREA RECENTLY RECEIVED SNOW, BUT THIS HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE BELOW NORMAL OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO BE THE OVERALL LACK OF A SNOWPACK AND LONGER TERM DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS.
FROST DEPTHS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WINTER, HOWEVER. THIS CAN LEAD TO
AN INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO ENHANCED RUNOFF FROM PRECIPITATION, BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. IN RECENT WEEKS, TEMEPRATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE FROST THAW PROCESS IS WELL UNDERWAY. THE THREAT
OF THE DEEP FROST LEADING TO RUNOFF INDUCED FLOODING THIS SPRING WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EACH PASSING WEEK AS THE FROST CONTINUES TO THAW.
ICE THICKNESS ON AREA RIVERS WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL THIS SEASON, BUT HAS
RECENTLY DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IN SOME CASES GONE AWAY COMPLETELY
FROM CERTAIN RIVER LOCATIONS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING,
WHICH IS ALSO RELIANT ON INCREASED FLOW IN AREA RIVERS. ISOLATED ICE JAMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, BUT THE RISK HAS CERTAINLY
DECREASED.
THE REMAINDER OF MARCH IS EXPECTED TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVERALL. THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY SHOWS THERE ARE NO STRONG
SIGNALS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUGGEST A LEAN TOWARD ABOVE, BELOW, OR NEAR
NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. HENCE, THE OUTLOOKS CALL FOR
EQUAL CHANCES.
GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OUTLINED ABOVE, FUTURE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR TOWARDS ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.
DUE TO THIS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC
FORECASTS GOING FORWARD. IN 2024, THE OUTLOOK WAS SIMILAR, BUT A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN LED TO WEEKS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING BY LATE JUNE. HENCE, A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLOODING
DOES NOT EXPLICITLY MEAN FLOODING WON'T OCCUR, BUT INSTEAD MEANS THE
OVERALL RISK IS BELOW OUR AVERAGE SPRING TIME RISK FOR FLOODING OVER
THE YEARS.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL/NORMAL (HS)
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN
THAT OF HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN THAT OF HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 8 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 15 36 6 18 <5 <5
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 8 28 6 19 <5 11
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 11 30 <5 21 <5 9
GRANITE FALLS 885.0 889.0 892.0 : <5 22 <5 7 <5 <5
MORTON 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 10 34 5 22 <5 7
NEW ULM 800.0 804.0 806.0 : <5 18 <5 9 <5 6
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 5 19 <5 8 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 9 30 <5 16 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 33 64 <5 13 <5 10
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 6 18 <5 8 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 22 28 <5 11 <5 8
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 13 20 5 16 <5 12
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 10 22 <5 13 <5 8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 32 <5 15 <5 <5
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 5 21 <5 8 <5 <5
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
ST FRANCIS 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 12 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 15 28 <5 9 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 25 <5 19 <5 12
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 11 40 <5 19 <5 13
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : <5 25 <5 17 <5 8
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 14 <5 10
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 897.0 899.0 900.0 : 9 21 <5 5 <5 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 6 24 <5 19 <5 12
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 9 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 17 <5 9 <5 6
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 11 46 <5 18 <5 10
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL)
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 32.2 32.2 32.5 33.0 33.6 34.7 36.1
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.9 5.4 7.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 14.2 14.9 16.2 17.9 20.7 23.5 28.8
NEW ULM 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.5 9.1 10.8 14.8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 5.6 5.8 6.8 9.8 11.8 14.3 15.1
GRANITE FALLS 881.0 881.1 881.5 882.5 883.0 883.9 884.5
MORTON 11.5 12.2 13.6 16.9 19.1 21.1 23.0
NEW ULM 787.8 788.3 789.5 792.0 794.0 796.7 799.5
MANKATO 8.3 9.0 10.2 12.2 14.4 17.3 20.0
HENDERSON 719.3 720.5 722.5 724.9 727.5 729.9 732.1
JORDAN 10.4 11.7 14.3 18.0 22.5 24.8 26.9
SAVAGE 689.7 690.5 695.2 699.1 703.1 706.5 708.0
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 4.2 4.3 4.5 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.1
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 5.4 5.5 6.3 8.5 10.8 12.7 13.7
DELANO 9.9 10.0 11.0 13.1 15.2 16.6 17.5
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 4.7 4.8 5.3 7.0 8.6 10.1 11.6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.6 8.6 9.6
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.5 7.7 10.3 12.5
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.2
ST FRANCIS 4.4 4.4 5.0 6.0 6.9 8.6 9.2
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.3 9.6 11.3 12.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 6.6 6.6 7.0 8.6 9.8 12.8 14.4
ST PAUL 4.0 4.2 5.1 7.0 9.7 12.4 14.0
HASTINGS L/D#2 6.7 6.8 7.8 10.0 12.8 15.3 16.4
RED WING L/D#3 672.6 672.7 673.2 675.4 677.0 679.8 680.4
RED WING 5.9 5.9 6.2 7.6 9.2 12.1 12.9
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 892.9 892.9 893.1 894.0 895.0 896.6 897.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 78.3 78.4 78.9 81.2 82.9 86.0 87.6
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 4.5 4.8 5.7 6.9 8.4 10.5 13.9
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 766.4 766.4 766.5 766.5 767.5 770.1 771.7
DURAND 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 11.1 13.9 14.6
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT)
FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NEW ULM 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
GRANITE FALLS 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
MORTON 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4
NEW ULM 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4
MANKATO 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7
HENDERSON 3.9 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.8
JORDAN 3.9 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.9
SAVAGE 6.6 6.6 6.4 4.7 3.2 2.3 1.9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
DELANO 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.7 6.3 5.0 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.5
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 7.8 7.8 7.0 5.0 3.6 2.4 2.0
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
ST FRANCIS 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 8.5 8.5 7.9 5.6 4.2 2.8 2.3
ST PAUL 12.2 12.2 12.1 9.2 6.5 4.4 3.8
HASTINGS L/D#2 12.0 12.0 12.0 9.5 6.8 4.7 3.9
RED WING L/D#3 23.4 23.3 18.3 14.2 10.6 7.6 6.5
RED WING 25.6 24.9 19.2 15.2 11.3 8.1 6.7
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 4.2 4.0 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7
DURAND 6.4 5.8 4.8 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.6
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM MORE THAN 70 YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, ALONG WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER
LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW COVER.
THIS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ONLINE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT, AT
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES
THIS IS THE THIRD AND FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2025.
SPD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page