998
FXUS63 KMPX 272101
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & LOW TO MID 70S UP INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SEVERE HAIL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TONIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING
TO ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
COOL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY...
THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOMES AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE NOSING UP INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS,
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND NORTHWARDS INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS STILL JUST HOW FAR
NORTH WILL THIS FRONT ADVANCE? TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
NORTH OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY IN THE 40S & LOW 50S, ON OUR
CURRENT FORECAST IS LIKELY STILL TOO BROAD WITH TEMEPRATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S EXTENDING FAIRLY DEEP INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE THIS
GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WE GET DATA FROM MORE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS, AND HOPEFULLY MORE CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING &
NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE FRONT.
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE RIDING INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, BUT A SURGE OF DRIER IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. RH VALUES COULD DROP
BELOW 30% ACROSS YELLOW MEDICINE THROUGH MARTIN COUNTIES, ALONG
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES INTO THE
EVENING. AN HOUR OR TWO OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THESE HIGHER WINDS
AND THE LOW RH VALUES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR- CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT, PEAKING AT 40-45 KTS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE
PLENTY OF LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO
COME BY AFTER SUNSET, BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERATE OVER 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
SHEAR. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE STILL VARIED IN JUST HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL & THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD HAVE A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA UP THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT THE
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM INITIATION LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE FORCING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND...
THE FRONT RETREATS SOUTHWARDS INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT, AND ACTS AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BROAD
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF THE AREA HAVING GOOD CHANCES FOR 0.5-1" OF
RAIN. COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THE RAIN INTO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL REMAINS VARIED ON THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER, AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT TO ACCUMULATE AS SNOW OR ICE, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BORDERLINE THROUGH THE EVENT, BUT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITHIN A FRONTOGENESIS BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THESE AREA. FREEZING RAIN COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
IF SURFACE TEMEPRATURES END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECASTS AND THE WARM NOSE ALOFT A FEW DEGREES WARMER, BUT
WE'RE NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS AT
THIS TIME. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO DEPICT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW WHEREVER THIS FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP SO WE STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER- IMPACT WINTER WEATHER, BUT
THIS MAINLY LOOKS TO BE AN ADVISORY- LEVEL EVENT AT WORSE
WHEREVER THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SET UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMEPRATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED ON ROADS & OTHER PAVED SURFACES.
NEXT WEEK...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
STILL REMAINS VARIED AMONG DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS,
BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STARING TO DEPICT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR AT LEAST 2-4" SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ALL SITES TO START OUT AS VFR AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO NEAR SUNRISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL TAF SITES, VERY LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE OVER WESTERN WI BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE
BY ANY MEANS, AND LESS THAN PREVIOUS TAF SETS. THUS, HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CONFINE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR EASTERNMOST
SITE, EAU, FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE SUNRISE HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS THEN LOOK TO HOLD ON THROUGH LATE MORNING, EVENTUALLY
GIVING WAY DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HAVE HELD LOWEST
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
IFR-OR-LOWER CEILINGS MID-TO-LATE FRIDAY MORNING. OPTED TO NOT
GO THAT ROUTE AT THIS TIME, ALLOWING FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY, SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM E TO
SE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REMAINING SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE E LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FOR PRECIP AT MSP, HAVE REMOVED
ITS MENTION AT THIS POINT. HAVE ALSO KEPT CEILINGS NO LOWER THAN
UPPER-RANGE MVFR. HOWEVER, CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE ARE
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/RA, CHC IFR. WIND NE 10-15G25 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/RASN BCMG -SN, CHC IFR. WIND N 10-15G25 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND N 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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