812
FXUS63 KMPX 280804
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ELEVATED STORMS THIS MORNING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER LARGER SYSTEM LOOKS PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CONVECTION IS BUBBLING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN IOWA WITH A SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ROBUST LOWER/MID LEVEL WAA AND NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO ADIABATIC, WITH STORMS LIKELY ELEVATED AS A WEAK SURFACE
INVERSION HOLDS IN PLACE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER GENERALLY THE MOST WE SHOULD EXPECT ARE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THOSE IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD WAKE UP TO SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z THIS MORNING AT WHICH POINT THE
FORCING SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST, SETTING UP THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE A LULL DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM RETURNS AFTER PUSHING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. PER
THE NAEFS, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE POTENTIALLY RECORD SETTING ON THE
VERY TOP END OF THE PERCENTILES WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER WITH
ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE DAY TO DRAG THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE. IN TERMS OF THE CLIMATE SITES, MSP HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
BREAK THE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 78 WITH A FORECAST HOVERING CLOSE TO
THE MARK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN EAU/STC COMPARED TO
THE RECORDS. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREDIBLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC WHICH ALONGSIDE THE FORCING
FROM THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MEAN THE PRODUCTION OF AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS IN AND AROUND 00Z. CAPPING COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN ISSUE DUE
TO THE STRONG 850MB WAA ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUCH THAT A WARM
NOSE COULD CAP OUR SURFACE INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
WITH STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED AS A RESULT. HODOGRAPHS PER RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30-35KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY TO SUSTAIN STORMS SHOULD THEY GET
GOING. DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED
WOULD BE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER CELLS, WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
LESS LIKELY DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.
AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY, OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARDS AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA CONTINUES AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. BROAD FORCING IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATER IN THE DAY. THE STORM TRACK
HAS FAVORED CENTRAL IOWA KEEPING US FIRMLY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
SIDE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY TURNING INTO SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A GLAZE
OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE MOST OF IT WOULD MELT AS WE WARM BACK UP DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WITHIN 1-3 INCHES
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MPX COUNTIES FROM TODD THROUGH
KANABEC WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
FLAKES AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN WE ARE IN LATE MARCH
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HAVE IT STICK AROUND FOR MORE THAN A DAY
DESPITE 'COOLER' TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ON MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE DURING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO THE WINTRY MIX AND
RESULTING SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM
WINDS DOWN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL HAVE SEEN A LARGE SWATH
OF 0.75-1 INCH OF LIQUID HAVING FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHER TOTALS FAVORING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WESTERN WISCONSIN,
AND THE LEAST FOR THE AREA IN WESTERN MINNESOTA IN PORTIONS OF
STEVENS, DOUGLAS, AND TODD COUNTIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY ON MONDAY GIVING US SUNSHINE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE BEING DISPLACED BY OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH LOOKS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROAD
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES TRAILING AN UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE SUITE
OF SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING ROBUST 850MB WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
TROUGH PUSHES, AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ADVECTION WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SPOT THAT SEES LARGER PRECIPITATION AND STORM
POTENTIAL. UNLIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MARGINALLY LOWER WITHOUT THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE SETUP IS SHOWN WELL WITHIN THE NBM
POPS OVER 80 ON DAYS 5/6, SHOWCASING THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW,
EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL UNTIL WE GET INTO RANGE OF SOME OF THE CAMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WE BEGIN VFR ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS AS WE EXPECT TO DROP TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR AS CLOUD BASES DECREASE STEADILY AS MOISTURE MOVES IN
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. SOME RADIATION FOG LOOKS TO DROP VSBY
FOR AXN/STC/RWF DOWN TO 1SM AT THE LOWEST, OTHERWISE IFR CIGS
SET UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF ONCE
TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH WINDS BCMG EASTERLY THIS
EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT IFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS -RA BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER
06Z. THERE COULD BE SOME ISLT'D -TSRA IN EAU FROM ROUGHLY
10-14Z, HOWEVER CAMS HAVE WITHDRAWN THE EASTERN EXTENT AND AS
SUCH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT RNH/MSP.
KMSP...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF, THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE
TRENDED SOUTHEAST WITHIN GUIDANCE WITH NOTHING CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF A
MORNING SHOWER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/RA, CHC IFR. WIND NE 10-15G25KTS.
SUN...MVFR/RASN BCMG -SN, CHC IFR. WIND N 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND N TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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