616
FXUS63 KMPX 291156
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WE WILL SEE RAIN
TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH THIS TRANSITION PERIOD CHARACTERIZED
BY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX.
- HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN. JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND OF SNOW, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.15" POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY ST. CLOUD
TO LADYSMITH.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
AGAIN EXPECTED, WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. GREATEST
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN
INTO NORTHERN WI.
- PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WELL, AFTER A TASTE OF SUMMER OVER SOUTHERN MN YESTERDAY, IT'S BACK
TO REALITY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WE'RE NOW
PLAYING THE WAITING GAME ON A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES, THE FIRST OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
4-CORNERS WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA UP
INTO MN BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CALI WAVE DRIVING A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL HELP KEEP A DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI AS THE LOW
MATURES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS FOR CHANGES WITH THE 29.00 GUIDANCE, THE GREATEST CHANGES SEEN
WERE WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER QPF MAKES IT, WHICH MAINLY
IMPACTS OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH, THOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND WAS
NOTED IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (LIKE THE ECMWF) FROM ALEXANDRIA UP
TOWARD BRAINERD. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE MPX AREA LOOKS TO RECEIVE
0.75" TO 1.25" OF QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AMOUNTS OVER 1.5"
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO EAU CLAIRE. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE
LIQUID PRECIP FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH AT MSP IS 1.68".
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ITS P-
TYPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW
LEVELS COOL DOWN FASTER THAN A WARM NOSE UP BETWEEN 850MB AND 800MB.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THAT WILL START ALMOST
WITH PRECIP ONSET OUT AT ALEXANDRIA, WITH THAT TRANSITION WORKING
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BETWEEN THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. HOW LONG THIS TRANSITION PERIOD WITH
PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LASTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD
DEAL OF SPREAD. WHERE WE'RE SEEING THE FREEZING RAIN BEING HELD ON
TO THE LONGEST BY THE MAJORITY OF MODELS IS FROM ROUGHLY ST. CLOUD
OVER TO LADYSMITH. WE DID TRY TO TEMPER THE ICE FORECAST SOME AS ICE
ACCUMULATIONS GET HARDER TO ACCOMPLISH THIS LATE INTO MARCH WHEN
EVERYTHING IS STARTING OUT SO WARM. GIVEN CURRENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND
30, WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS. THE GREATEST
LENGTH OF TIME FOR SNOW EXISTS FROM MADISON UP TO ALEXANDRIA AND
OVER TO MILLE LACS, WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 1" TO
3" OF SNOW (UP TO 4" POSSIBLE) EXISTS. SOUTHEAST EAST OF THESE
AREAS, IT'S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WE SEE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.
FOR HEADLINES, THERE WAS A LOT OF BACK AND FORTH IN THE OFFICE ABOUT
CHANGES TO MAKE, BUT IN THE END, WE KEPT THE SAME SHAPE, THOUGH
SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO A WESTERN SEGMENT THAT ENDS AT 18Z SUNDAY,
CENTRAL SEGMENT THAT ENDS AT 21Z, AND AN EASTERN ONE THAT STILL ENDS
AT 00Z MONDAY (7PM SUNDAY). THERE WAS DISCUSSION ABOUT PUTTING DUNN
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES INTO THE ADVISORY, BUT OUR CURRENT SNOW AND
ICE GRIDS DON'T SUPPORT HAVING HEADLINES THERE. WE ALSO DISCUSSED
DROPPING THE EASTERN EDGE OF COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY (MARTIN,
WATONWAN, BROWN, NICOLLET, SIBLEY, CARVER, HENNEPIN, RAMSEY,
WASHINGTON, AND ST. CROIX COUNTIES) WHERE IT'S QUESTIONABLE HOW
MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OUT, BUT LEFT IT AS IS FOR NOW, WITH THE
NEXT SHIFT TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THOSE COUNTIES WITH THE 12Z
GUIDANCE.
WE WOULD LOVE TO SAY THAT'S IT FOR WINTER WEATHER, BUT IN TRUE UPPER
MIDWEST FASHION, WE LOOK TO KICK OFF APRIL WITH YET ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM! IN GENERAL, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST MN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE GOING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S STILL SOME SPREAD IN TERMS OF
BOTH SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS LOW, BUT THE CURRENT MEAN TRACK OF THE
LOW PUTS US ON TO THE COLD SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ONCE
AGAIN. THIS TIME AROUND, WE WON'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WARM NOSE LIKE
WE WILL WITH TONIGHT'S MESS, WHICH MEANS IT'S A RAIN OR SNOW
QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO P-TYPE. WITH 00Z EPS, IT HAD
PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 50% FOR EXCEEDING 0.6" OF QPF AS
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN. GIVEN THE MEAN LOW TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN, IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO SEE THE GREATEST SNOW
PROBABILITIES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN UP TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL EPS
MEMBERS FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AT STC AND EVEN MSP, THERE ARE
SEVERAL EPS MEMBERS DUMPING OUT OVER AN INCH OF QPF INTO THE
SNOW BIN. WITH THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE'S CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RATHER HEALTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WE'LL
START TO GET SOME MORE CLARITY ON AS WE WORK THE THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A
REX BLOCK PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. POSITION WISE, WE WOULD FIND OURSELVES IN THE
SUBSIDENCE REGION TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD FAVOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE 12Z TAFS IS THAT WE DECIDED TO LEAN
MUCH HARDER INTO THE GFS/RAP/HRRR FOR P-TYPES. THIS MEANS WE
BACKED OFF PRETTY HARD ON THE FZRA MENTION, INSTEAD GOING WITH
A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR WHEN MIXED P-TYPES ARE EXPECTED. WE DIDN'T
CHANGE PRECIP TIMING MUCH, THOUGH THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING COMING IN
DOES SUPPORT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW A STRONG INVERSION
THAT PEAKS AT 825MB. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING CAN SUPPORT
DRIZZLE/MIST GENERATION AND THAT IS IN FACT WHAT WE'RE SEEING
THIS MORNING. AS WE WARM SOME THIS MORNING, WE EXPECTED THE
DRIZZLE TO END BEFORE STEADY RAIN ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...WHEN LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EVEN THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE FZRA POTENTIAL, SO FELT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN A SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING TO
DROP THE FZRA MENTION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. -SN LIKELY. WIND N 10-15G25 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND N TO NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR MRNG. RASN/MVFR/IFR AFTN/NIGHT. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BROWN-CARVER-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR CHISAGO-WASHINGTON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page