794
FXUS63 KMPX 292022
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN. JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND OF SNOW, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.15" POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY ST. CLOUD
TO LADYSMITH.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED, WITH A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW
POSSIBLE. GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
- PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A NOW WELL-DEVELOPED
999MB LOW OVER CENTRAL KS, FORMED ALONG AN ELONGATED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE OVER SOUTHEAST NE, CENTRAL IA AND
SOUTHERN WI INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND EXTENDING WSW INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA THEN SNAKING NW OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT, A
TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SW OUT OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITS OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO A BLOSSOMING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EVEN AS SOLELY RAINFALL, THE AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, QPF TOTALS WILL RUN BETWEEN 0.50"-1.00" FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA. HOWEVER, AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AN AGGRESSIVE P-TYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS SYSTEM. APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL ONGOING
NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THUS, THIS IS WHERE THE P-TYPE CHANGES WILL
OCCUR FIRST. BY DAYBREAK, THE ONLY AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, ALBEIT NOT BY MUCH, WILL BE EAST OF THE MN RIVER IN MN
AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN WI. IT IS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DROPS 1-3
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING THAT HAS THE MOST QUESTIONS FOR PRECIP
TYPE DUE TO THE DEPTH AND HEIGHT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. WHILE
EARLY-DAY MODEL RUNS TODAY INDICATED MORE OF A SLEET REGIME THAN
FZRA, CAMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE SLEET IN LIEU
OF MORE FZRA, WHICH REALLY DOES SPEAK TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEPTH AND ELEVATION OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE
ENTIRE DURATION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A
4-5 HOUR DURATION FOR ANY GIVEN SITE, AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
SLIDES FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GOING BACK TO THE MOISTURE- LADEN QPF EXPECTED, THIS MEANS THAT
ICING AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO PEAK IN BETWEEN 0.10"-0.15" ALONG A
LINE ROUGHLY WILLMAR-ST CLOUD- CAMBRIDGE IN MN OVER TO
CUMBERLAND-LADYSMITH IN WI. ICING AMOUNTS DROP OFF GOING SOUTH,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ICING EXPECTED SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES METRO. AS THE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL RUN NEAR AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO-ST CLOUD-MORA, WHERE 2-4" OF WET
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. SIMILARLY, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF
APPRECIABLY GOING SOUTH, WITH ONLY UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED (AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS AT THAT).
WITH THE LATEST TREND IN THE ICING BACKING OFF THE SLEET
POTENTIAL A BIT IN LIEU OF A SLIGHTLY GREATER FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL, AND ALSO SHOWING SUCH POTENTIAL A TIER OF COUNTIES
EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN MN, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TIMING.
THE PRECIPITATION, AS WET SNOW, WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE A RESULT OF THE LONGWAVE ROCKIES
TROUGH AND THE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, HELPING KICK THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ON SUNDAY BUT EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WILL
SLIDE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRY AIR AND A
REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH WITH A REINFORCEMENT
OF COLDER RESIDUAL AIR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO NEAR 40 AREA-WIDE, BUT WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MELT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING ONSHORE THE PACNW ON MONDAY WILL DRAG A LOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY,
BECOMING MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AS A SUB-990MB LOW ON WEDNESDAY
OVER NE/IA. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA, AS IN WITHIN THE COLDER AIR PORTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK THE WARM AIR ALOFT, THUS
KEEPING THE P-TYPES AS SOLELY RAIN AND SNOW. THAT SAID, STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
PLENTY OF RAINFALL OVER A 48-HR PERIOD FROM TUE AFTN TO WED
AFTN, BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET PLOWABLE SNOW TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
STILL A BIT EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS BUT WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE COVERAGE AREA,
INCLUDING ON ROADS. THE SILVER LINING HERE IS THAT DAYTIME HIGHS
ON WED WILL RUN FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WEST-CENTRAL MN TO THE
UPPER 40S IN FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
ON THU IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. THUS, WHAT SNOW DOES COME IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, MAKING FOR
VERY FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
WILL GO ON A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NO LARGE CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM SOUTHERN MN,
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR TERMINALS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE IT STARTS TO EXIT EAST FROM WESTERN MN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE AT THE ONSET BUT COLDER AIR ARRIVING
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WILL CAUSE RAIN TO GO TO A
SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSITION WILL REACH OUR WI TERMINALS
SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LARGELY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THIS WITH CIGS REMAINING
BELOW OR NEAR 1000 FEET. CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY BUT
SLOWLY TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTS
COULD REACH 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...ADDED A PROB30 FROM 00-04Z SUNDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A THUNDERSTORM PASSING NEAR MSP DUE TO THE NON-ZERO INSTABILITY.
ALSO KEPT SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND N TO NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR MRNG. RASN/MVFR/IFR AFTN/NIGHT. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...RASN WITH MVFR/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-FARIBAULT-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR CHISAGO-WASHINGTON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page