286
FXUS63 KMPX 301046
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SPRING STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TODAY.
- ANOTHER POTENT SPRING STORM ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FAVORING WET SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS AFTER MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A COUPLE DISTINCT FEATURES SHOW UP ON GOES SATELLITE
THIS MORNING AS OUR SPRING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN OVERHEAD. THE
FIRST FEATURE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BUBBLING WITHIN THE CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL AMOUNTS OF LIGHTING. THE SECOND IS A
NOTABLE DRIER SIGNAL WITHIN THE DIFFERENTIAL WATER VAPOR RGB
STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA NORTH OF WHERE THE RADAR ECHOES
ARE PLACED AS OF ABOUT 220AM. THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL IOWA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE IA/WI/IL
BORDER BY MIDDAY. OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT HAVE LARGELY BEEN TRACE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT THE MOST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WITH MAINLY RAIN EVERYWHERE ELSE, WITH THE EXPECTED
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ONGOING AS WE GET INTO THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME. AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARDS, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL PIVOT WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST,
RESULTING IN THE ONGOING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BECOMING SNOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING BY THE EVENING. RAP/HRRR 06Z RUNS
BOTH SHOW A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND PRESENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DEVELOPING BY 20-21Z JUST AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE TWIN CITIES, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE AS THIS BAND SLIDES SOUTHEAST. GIVEN WE ARE
AT THE END OF MARCH, IT CAN BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME EVEN
CLOUD FILTERED SUNLIGHT TO CAUSE SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS AS LONG
AS DAYLIGHT IS ONGOING, SO THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SLUSHY ROADS
WHERE THE RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS, FAVORING THE
REGION FROM ROUGHLY ALBERT LEA TO LAKE CITY AND SOUTHEAST. THE
SNOWBAND IS EXPECTED FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW RESULTING IN A
RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN SPOT OF ONLY AN HOUR OR SO, WHICH SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE INDIVIDUAL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY AS IT FALLS DURING THE
DAY. BY THE EVENING, THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE PUSHED
EASTWARDS OUT OF THE AREA AND THE EVENT WILL HAVE WRAPPED UP FOR US.
WE SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER ON MONDAY AS WE QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO OUR NEXT LARGE SPRING SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDES THROUGH
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SUNSHINE ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MELT ANY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET
SURGING NORTHWARDS AND BRINGING AMPLE FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COUPLED WITH EFFICIENT LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL
OCCLUSION WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATER ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWCASING A 985-990MB LOW BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWCASING 10:1
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS A SWATH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
UP TOWARDS DULUTH. SINCE THIS IS YET ANOTHER SPRING SYSTEM, OUR
RATIOS LIKELY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN 10:1 FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT,
WITH A HEAVIER AND WETTER NATURE TO THE SNOWFALL AND LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THIS IS TO SAY, THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY ACROSS
THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER IMPACTFUL STORM BRINGING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, FAVORING CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.
AS WE HEAD LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS OF A REX-BLOCK TYPE
PATTERN SETTING UP WITHIN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS,
WHICH FOR US MEANS RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE 2ND
WEEK OF APRIL. THIS OF COURSE COULD CHANGE GIVEN WE ARE IN THE
MIDDLE OF A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LARGER SYSTEM
ARRIVING BEFOREHAND, HOWEVER WITHIN THE 7-10 DAY RANGE THERE IS
DECENT ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO ADVERTISE A QUIETER PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT TAF START WILL BE -RA WITH A TRANSITION
TO -RASN BEFORE -SN GRADUALLY TODAY. -SN ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT OR NOTHING ON PAVEMENT ONCE DAYLIGHT ARRIVES, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AFTER 20Z BUT STAYING SOUTH/EAST OF ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS SUSTAINED AT
10-15KTS WITH DIRECTION MAINTAINING 350-020 THROUGHOUT. IFR CIGS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AS PRECIP FALLS, BECOMING LOW MVFR AS THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BEFORE EVENTUALLY ENDING UP VFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, BCMG MVFR/IFR W/-RASN. WIND SE 10-20G25KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-BROWN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
CHISAGO.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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