519
FXUS63 KMPX 310401
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AND WET SNOW,
ALL OF WHICH WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW ARE
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED, WITH A BAND OF HEAVY WET
SNOW POSSIBLE. GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
- PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE WI/IA BORDER WITH A NORTHWEST WARD TRAILING WEAK
TROUGH AND A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. KMPX RADAR INDICATES
THAT THE NE-SW ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM NW WISCONSIN
DOWN TO SOUTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS NEARLY ALL SNOW AT THIS
POINT, SAVE A SMALL AREAS OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER
CHIPPEWA/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING, THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT, EVENTUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR ALL OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA NOT LONG
AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED, LESS THAN AN INCH, AND THE REMAINING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO ICING BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW THEN ENDING.
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ON SUNDAY BUT EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WILL
SLIDE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRY AIR AND A
REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH WITH A REINFORCEMENT
OF COLDER RESIDUAL AIR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. THE WET NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW WHICH IS STILL
RESIDING ANYWHERE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING ONSHORE THE PACNW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL
DRAG PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HELP NUDGE THIS LOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, DEEPENING IT QUICKLY TO A MORE ORGANIZED
SUB-990MB LOW OVER KANSAS ON TUESDAY THEN TO NE/IA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH, NOW CROSSING
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK THE WARM AIR
ALOFT, THUS KEEPING THE P-TYPES AS SOLELY RAIN AND SNOW. THAT
SAID, STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL OVER A 48-HR PERIOD FROM TUE AFTN TO
WED AFTN, BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET PLOWABLE SNOW TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK MEANS A MUCH SMALLER AREA
WHICH MAY RECEIVE 6+" OF WET SNOW. THUS, IT IS NOT ONLY TOO
EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THE LARGE SHIFT
IN QPF AND ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
SUPPLEMENTAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT. GENERALLY- SPEAKING, WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE COVERAGE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS AND COLLABORATION WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE ISSUING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS. THE SILVER LINING HERE IS THAT DAYTIME
HIGHS ON WED WILL RUN FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WEST-CENTRAL MN TO
THE LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ON THU IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THUS, WHAT SNOW DOES
COME IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, ONCE
PAST THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL GO ON A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES WERE LEFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THESE SHOULD BE GONE
FROM THE AREA BY 09Z, LEAVING VFR ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD ADVECTION HAS KEPT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WELL
INTO THE EVENING, BUT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
KMSP...CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET AGL SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON
AFTER 06Z WITH CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE METRO. NO OTHER
CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, BCMG MVFR/IFR W/-RASN. WIND SE 10-20G25KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDK
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