131
FXUS63 KMPX 311640
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1140 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS
EXPECTED AGAIN. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO
RESIDE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER TONIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PULLING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT TROUBLE MAKER
CRASHING INTO OREGON & WASHINGTON. FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE US OUR BREATHER BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 (AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
ALREADY PUSHING 50).
THAT STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED OUT BY OREGON AND WASHINGTON WILL START
TO IMPACT US TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIP LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY COMPLEX P-TYPE SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI
ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL PUT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN MN AND QUICKLY SPREAD ENE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT H7 JET. WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH THIS BAND WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS
INITIAL BAND ON TUESDAY FALLING AS SNOW, THOUGH THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THIS BEING A 34 DEGREE HEAVY SNOW OR A 35 DEGREE DOWNPOUR IS
INCREDIBLY SMALL. AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE H85 & H7
LOWS WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SODAK, WITH THOSE
FEATURES ENDING UP OVER THE ARROWHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH TO THE EAST OF THE H85 & H7
LOWS, WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. EXACTLY WHERE THE
TRANSITION LINE SETS UP WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE "WINNER" IN THE
SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT ENDS UP, AS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, WE WILL SEE
DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL TOTAL JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE RAIN
SNOW LINE SETS UP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EPS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO PAINT CENTRAL MN (CENTERED AROUND ALEXANDRIA, FERGUS FALLS, AND
BRAINERD) AS BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO CASH IN ON THIS SNOW
EVENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE SETS UP AND HOW LONG THE TRANSITION TO RAIN TAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT, WE DID ADD A BIT OF SOUTHERN BUFFER TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH, BRINGING IT DOWN TO SWIFT, WRIGHT, AND UP TO ISANTI COUNTY.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, A REX BLOCK IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL SET US UP INTO A 7-10 DAY
STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER UNDER PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL TO START
APRIL. HOWEVER, YOU DO HAVE TO REMEMBER, WE START APRIL WITH AVERAGE
HIGHS AROUND 50. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, IT IS LOOKING HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH, WITH COOL AND DRY BEING OUR SCENARIO
AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK EXITING TO OUR
SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WE'LL SEE WINDS SWITCH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AND IS
REFLECTED INTO THE TAFS. I HAVE INTRODUCED -RASN/-SN FOR SEVERAL
SITES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FALLS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AND I'VE UTILIZED A PROB30 TO BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE LOW MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE
SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...I'VE TRANSITIONED THE PROB30 TO A PREVAILING -RASN GROUP.
WE'LL SEE HEAVIER RATES PICK UP AFTER 18Z BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT P-TYPE WE'LL BE DEALING WITH GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW. WE'LL HOPE TO INCREASE
CONFIDENCE WITH OUR P-TYPES FOR THE 00Z SET OF TAFS. ALSO OPTED
TO INCLUDE A LLWS GROUP FROM 21Z TO 00Z WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 20-25G35KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND VRB 3-5KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-ISANTI-KANABEC-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BPH
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