954
FXUS63 KMPX 010352
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE SNOW WILL START TUESDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH STAYS IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LIGHT SNOW & ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM HAVE BEGUN TO QUICKLY
RECEDE. ALL THIS DOES IS SET UP A CLEAN SLATE FOR OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OFF THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES, AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK ENE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. PER
SPRING STORM STANDARDS FOR US, PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A BIG TALKING
POINT IN THIS EVENT AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THIS TIME AROUND IT WILL
MAINLY BE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN VERSUS SNOW, POTENTIALLY
RAIN VERSUS HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INITIALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA
GRADUALLY LIFTING NEAR SURFACE TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
THE 32F MARK, THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF A NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER
COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW AND A DOWNPOUR AS
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW SPREADS NORTHEAST. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED
WELL BY MANY OF THE CAMS' 1 HOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST, WHERE A VERY
SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN 1"+/HOUR RATES PRACTICALLY BORDER 0"
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FREEZING RAIN, COULD
MIX IN DURING THIS TRANSITION PHASE, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT A
SWITCH TO ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR. THIS WOULD MAKE AN ALREADY WET,
HEAVY SNOW (SLRS ~8-10:1) EVEN MORE CONCRETE-ESQUE.
AS THE LOW SLIDES NE, A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES DATA
DOES HINT AT WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF A
GUSTY SHOWER SETUP WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WRAP
AROUND FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS? ACROSS THE BOARD,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERN
LOW TRACK AND WEAKER LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
HAS ON THE FORECAST IS A DROP IN QPF BY ~0.1-0.2" AND A SLIGHT
NORTHERN PUSH OF THE EXPECTED RAIN/SNOW LINE (STRONGER INFLUX OF
MID LEVEL WARM AIR). THE 12Z HI-RES SUITE HIGHLIGHTS THIS
SOUTHERN TREND AS WELL, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES
ARRIVING TO CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BETWEEN 2-7PM. THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY'S EVENING COMMUTE.
GIVEN THE RECENT SHIFTS, THERE IS STILL A NOTE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXTENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF WEST- CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-
WARNING LEVEL SNOW (LESS THAN 6 INCHES). THE WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PLACES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY,
WHERE WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. WRIGHT, SHERBURNE,
AND KANABEC COUNTIES ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW, BUT A LATER ONSET TIME GIVES A LITTLE MORE WIGGLE ROOM TO
GAIN HIGHER CONFIDENCE. AN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY IS ALSO
LIKELY INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE TWIN CITIES METRO REMAINS RIGHT ON THE
LINE, WITH MORE RAIN BEING FAVORED THAN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE EVENT. THAT SAID, A COUPLE HOURS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (WRIGHT
AND ANOKA), BUT ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN TOTALS COULD INCLUDE MORE
OF THE METRO.
A WORD OF CAUTION FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. PROCEED WITH CARE
WHEN LOOKING AT SNOWFALL MAPS WITH 10:1 RATIOS (AND EVEN
KUCHERA). A COMBINATION OF WET SLRS, MELTING SNOW, COMPACTION,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALL EAT AWAY AT THE ACCUMULATIONS. SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT IT LIKELY
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE THE SNOW DEPTH REACH THAT POINT AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. OUR LATEST FORECAST DROPS TOTALS A BIT,
BUT LEAVES THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REGARDING TOTAL PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
0.5 TO 1.5" OF LIQUID TO THE REGION, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA (WHO GENERALLY RECEIVED
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND).
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON
DECK AS THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE SITUATES
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED,
ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SPAWN A STRONG LOW THAT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND JUST NORTHWEST OF IT. THIS
REX BLOCK SETUP WILL PUT IN THE WORK TO KEEP US ON THE DRY,
NORTHERN SIDE. PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN BY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL (WHICH IS IN THE LOW 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 30S FOR
LOWS). BY THE END OF THE MONTH, AVERAGE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND AVERAGE LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR AT ALL SITES TO START THIS DURATION, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THAT WINDS WILL DROP TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
AT INITIALIZATION THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE,
AND WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGHOUT. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POST-SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW, WHICH ONCE IT STARTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
DURATION. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR THEN IFR LEVELS, WITH
VISIBILITIES LIKELY DOING THE SAME. AS FOR WINDS, SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, THEN CONDITIONS WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z-16Z THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
DURATION. CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR LEVEL BY AROUND 18Z, THEN
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING IFR LEVELS NEAR
THE START OF THE AFTERNOON PUSH. IFR LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED. AS FOR P-TYPE, THE MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE REALIZED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT IF THERE IS
A HEAVIER BAND, THAT MAY COME AS SNOW. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY/WET SNOW WITH A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 20-25G35KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND VRB 3-5KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-POPE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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