137
FXUS63 KMPX 010839
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS AFTER THIS SYSTEM, WITH AT LEAST A WEEK
OF NO PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER PUSHING
EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, ON ITS WAY
TO EVENTUALLY BRING US WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO FULLY ENTER THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
BEST SURGE OF SNOWFALL SPREADING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THE LATE
MORNING TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOW
QUALITY BEING ON THE HEAVIER SIDE AS TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL
LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES IN WILL BE 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS WHERE
THE TILT OF THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THESE LEVELS IS, AS IT WILL
BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL VERSUS RAINFALL
SETS UP. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 700MB LOW
SHOULD BE THE SWEET SPOT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE CENTER AND EAST/SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR WHICH COULD HAMPER SNOW DEVELOPMENT VIA MELTING AND REFREEZE,
BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE
EVENING, ENOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
PRODUCE PRIMARILY SNOWFALL ONCE AGAIN WITH THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION HAVING SHIFTED FROM ROUGHLY MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH.
BY THE TIME WE REACH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING AT GROUND LEVEL EVEN WHILE IT IS
SNOWING SUCH THAT PAVED SURFACES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS UNLESS RATES ARE ABOVE 1/2 INCH PER HOUR, WITH THE
BULK OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES. A FEW OF THE CAMS, NAMELY
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD FURTHER EAT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN WHERE THE RATES ARE
HIGHEST. THE WARMER TREND IN THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE CRUCIAL
POSITIONING OF THE 850-700MB LOW HAS LED TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST.
QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LONGER RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL WITH THE ONLY SLIM CHANCE WITHIN THE TYPICAL
7 DAY PERIOD ALONG A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. A PATTERN AKIN TO A CLASSIC REX BLOCK LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BLOCK ACCESS TO GULF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR OUR REGION, RESULTING IN A LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLEARER SKIES IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL AS OUR NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE 50S FOR THE TWIN CITIES AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR AT ALL SITES TO START THIS DURATION, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THAT WINDS WILL DROP TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
AT INITIALIZATION THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE,
AND WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGHOUT. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POST-SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW, WHICH ONCE IT STARTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
DURATION. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR THEN IFR LEVELS, WITH
VISIBILITIES LIKELY DOING THE SAME. AS FOR WINDS, SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, THEN CONDITIONS WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z-16Z THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
DURATION. CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR LEVEL BY AROUND 18Z, THEN
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING IFR LEVELS NEAR
THE START OF THE AFTERNOON PUSH. IFR LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED. AS FOR P-TYPE, THE MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE REALIZED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT IF THERE IS
A HEAVIER BAND, THAT MAY COME AS SNOW. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY/WET SNOW WITH A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 20-25G35KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND VRB 3-5KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR DOUGLAS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-STEVENS-
SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-RENVILLE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR POPE-STEARNS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-ISANTI-SHERBURNE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CHISAGO.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC
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