945
FXUS63 KMPX 220741
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
241 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APRIL SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING,
THURSDAY, AND THIS WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (BEST
CHANCE MONDAY), BUT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMAL HIGH AROUND 60)
OUTSIDE OF A NEAR NORMAL STRETCH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING RAIN THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WE HAVE SEEN THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THANKS TO IT BEING IN THE MAIN AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WITH THE BEST LLJ SUPPORT. LIMITED INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN KEEPING CORES SMALL WITH THE IMPACTS BEING RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE TO THE EAST.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 70 FOR MOST, SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THANKS TO IT TAKING LONGER
FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR. THIS HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S
WILL PROVIDE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS IS ALSO
THE PART OF THE AREA THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH, IF ANY RAIN FROM A
DAY AGO. SO A GREATER FIRE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND LIGHTER WINDS. THAT IS NICE DAY HOWEVER, NOT NIGHT, AS RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM IS ON THURSDAY. THIS LATE WEDNESDAY CHANCE IS TIED
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING.
THE BEST WAA IS IN IOWA AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN NORTHERN EXTENT AMONG
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. SO KEPT WITH THE NBM POP TO DEMONSTRATE THIS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW. MEAN ENSEMBLE TRACKS SUGGEST THIS LOW
WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS ONCE AGAIN PUTS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH FROM WEST TO
EAST. IF THIS CONTINUES WE COULD SEE DROUGHT EXPANSION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. BEING ON THE COOLER NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW TRACK WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SPC HAS THE
GENERAL THUNDER LINE RIGHT ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER
KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE COOLER FLOW
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT JUST NEAR NORMAL. A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL MUCH DRIER.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COOLER TEMEPRATURES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT LAKES HIGH. SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND WETTER AS A LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. UNLIKE
THE THURSDAY LOW TRACK THIS ONE WOULD HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS LOW, THUS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE
TOO WARM TO BUILD MUCH INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE THE
WARMER SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL TO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
SAYING THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS WILL BE THE DAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND
FORECAST PARCEL PATHS. CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALSO GIVES THIS DAY
THE BEST CHANCE, BUT NOT A HIGH CHANCE, FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MN WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST DURING TONIGHT. WEATHER STATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN RAIN SO FAR HAVE REMAINED VFR, THUS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS,
OVERCAST CLOUD BASES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS (MKT
WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY) FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
MVFR PERIOD, STARTING WITH MN TERMINALS DURING TUESDAY MORNING
AND WI TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY AS
SKIES CLEAR DURING TUESDAY. SUSTAINED VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN,
MOST LIKELY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOW TO NEAR 5 KNOTS
IN THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY.
KMSP...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL UNTIL ABOUT 12Z,
THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS WILL FALL TO NEAR 1800 FEET
FROM 12-16Z BEFORE SKIES CLEAR BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR OVERNIGHT. WIND VARIABLE AROUND 5
KTS.
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
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