219
FXUS63 KMPX 221057
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APRIL SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING,
THURSDAY, AND THIS WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (BEST
CHANCE MONDAY), BUT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMAL HIGH AROUND 60)
OUTSIDE OF A NEAR NORMAL STRETCH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING RAIN THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WE HAVE SEEN THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THANKS TO IT BEING IN THE MAIN AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WITH THE BEST LLJ SUPPORT. LIMITED INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN KEEPING CORES SMALL WITH THE IMPACTS BEING RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE TO THE EAST.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 70 FOR MOST, SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THANKS TO IT TAKING LONGER
FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR. THIS HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S
WILL PROVIDE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS IS ALSO
THE PART OF THE AREA THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH, IF ANY RAIN FROM A
DAY AGO. SO A GREATER FIRE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND LIGHTER WINDS. THAT IS NICE DAY HOWEVER, NOT NIGHT, AS RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM IS ON THURSDAY. THIS LATE WEDNESDAY CHANCE IS TIED
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING.
THE BEST WAA IS IN IOWA AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN NORTHERN EXTENT AMONG
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. SO KEPT WITH THE NBM POP TO DEMONSTRATE THIS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW. MEAN ENSEMBLE TRACKS SUGGEST THIS LOW
WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS ONCE AGAIN PUTS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH FROM WEST TO
EAST. IF THIS CONTINUES WE COULD SEE DROUGHT EXPANSION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. BEING ON THE COOLER NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW TRACK WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SPC HAS THE
GENERAL THUNDER LINE RIGHT ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER
KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE COOLER FLOW
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT JUST NEAR NORMAL. A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL MUCH DRIER.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COOLER TEMEPRATURES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT LAKES HIGH. SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND WETTER AS A LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. UNLIKE
THE THURSDAY LOW TRACK THIS ONE WOULD HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS LOW, THUS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE
TOO WARM TO BUILD MUCH INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE THE
WARMER SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL TO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
SAYING THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS WILL BE THE DAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND
FORECAST PARCEL PATHS. CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALSO GIVES THIS DAY
THE BEST CHANCE, BUT NOT A HIGH CHANCE, FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. RNH AND EAU
ARE THE REMAINING TERMINALS IN THE PATH OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT
MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS SEEN ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN, ONCE THE PRECIPITATION PASSES THROUGH CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR FOR A MULTI-HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TO
VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THESE CLOUDS WITH CENTRAL TO EASTERN MN BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND WI TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY ONCE THE MVFR CLOUDS AND
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN WESTERN MN WHERE
SUSTAINED VALUES OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS SLOW THIS EVENING TO NEAR OR UNDER 5 KNOTS.
KMSP...MVFR CIGS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING. CLOUD BASES WILL DROP TO NEAR 2500 FEET FROM 14-16Z.
CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON AS SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR. WESTERLY
WINDS COULD ALSO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS.
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
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