933
FXUS63 KMPX 221736
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APRIL SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING,
THURSDAY, AND THIS WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (BEST
CHANCE MONDAY), BUT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMAL HIGH AROUND 60)
OUTSIDE OF A NEAR NORMAL STRETCH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING RAIN THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WE HAVE SEEN THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THANKS TO IT BEING IN THE MAIN AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WITH THE BEST LLJ SUPPORT. LIMITED INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN KEEPING CORES SMALL WITH THE IMPACTS BEING RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE TO THE EAST.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 70 FOR MOST, SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THANKS TO IT TAKING LONGER
FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR. THIS HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S
WILL PROVIDE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS IS ALSO
THE PART OF THE AREA THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH, IF ANY RAIN FROM A
DAY AGO. SO A GREATER FIRE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND LIGHTER WINDS. THAT IS NICE DAY HOWEVER, NOT NIGHT, AS RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LARGE SCALE
SYSTEM IS ON THURSDAY. THIS LATE WEDNESDAY CHANCE IS TIED TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE
BEST WAA IS IN IOWA AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN NORTHERN EXTENT AMONG
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. SO KEPT WITH THE NBM POP TO DEMONSTRATE THIS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW. MEAN ENSEMBLE TRACKS SUGGEST THIS LOW
WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS ONCE AGAIN PUTS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH FROM WEST TO
EAST. IF THIS CONTINUES WE COULD SEE DROUGHT EXPANSION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. BEING ON THE COOLER NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW TRACK WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SPC HAS THE
GENERAL THUNDER LINE RIGHT ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER
KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE COOLER FLOW
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT JUST NEAR NORMAL. A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL MUCH DRIER.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COOLER TEMEPRATURES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT LAKES HIGH. SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND WETTER AS A LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. UNLIKE
THE THURSDAY LOW TRACK THIS ONE WOULD HAVE US IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS LOW, THUS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE TOO WARM
TO BUILD MUCH INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE THE WARMER
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL TO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
SAYING THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS WILL BE THE DAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND
FORECAST PARCEL PATHS. CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALSO GIVES THIS DAY
THE BEST CHANCE, BUT NOT A HIGH CHANCE, FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
MORNING CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE AS SUNSHINE TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL. ALL SITES WILL REACH VFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF INITIALIZATION, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS DURATION. PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CEILING PASSING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT, THESE WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF
VIRGA INSTEAD OF REACHING THE SURFACE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD. BREEZY/GUSTY W
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
THEN PICK UP FROM THE N TO W TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. BREEZY
W WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN PICK UP FROM THE WSW AFTER SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
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