284
FXUS63 KMPX 221948
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
248 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SHORT TERM/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER... SUNNY AND CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, AS CAPTURED ON GOES-
EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR BARRON, CHIPPEWA, AND RUSK COUNTIES
IN WISCONSIN WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING.
FOR MOST, THE FORECAST IS NICE AND TAME, HOWEVER WE ARE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH/WEST MN, WHERE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. RH'S
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN MN, WITH WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 MPH. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT HIGHER
INSTANTANEOUS GUSTS, NEAR 35 MPH, REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF EFFICIENT MIXING TO 5-7K FEET AND THE PRESENCE OF
A 700MB JETSTREAK ALOFT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RH'S DIP FURTHER,
SAY BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES...NICE WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO
A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST OF STEARNS
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MN. OF COURSE, IT WOULDN'T FIT THE THEME OF THE
CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN DRY FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO!
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG I-90. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES (60-80%)
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPAWNS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY THE CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL IOWA
EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI WILL BE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW, IN A REGION FAVORED FOR SOAKING RAINFALL,
SUPPORTED BY HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN, A
TRAILING FEATURE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORCING OVER EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS LIKELY GOING TO SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER NOTABLE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA (MORE
RAIN IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI, LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS WESTERN MN).
WPC'S LATEST QPF OUTLOOK DISPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.75-1" OF RAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MARTIN CO. (MN) TO DUNN CO. (WI).
AMOUNTS THEN DROP-OFF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH EACH TIER OF
COUNTIES NORTHWEST. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS WESTERN MN DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF DRY FUELS. AS THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DISCUSSED, THIS
COULD ALSO MEAN FURTHER DEGRADATION IN THE DROUGHT MONITOR ACROSS
WESTERN MN.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WET WEATHER MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE TO END THE
WORK WEEK AND OPEN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
AND QUIET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (FRIDAY)
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S (SATURDAY). SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO WITH ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS! BY SUNDAY, AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY (UPPER 60S) AND MONDAY (UPPER 70S!).
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPAWN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. SHOULD THIS TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE COMING DAYS, MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE "WARM
SECTOR" TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO,
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MN, LEAVING
SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IN A REGION FAVORED FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IT'S TOO SOON TO TALK SPECIFICS WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, HOWEVER CSU/NCAR ML SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION,
SPC CIRCLED A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MN IN THE DAY 7
OUTLOOK, GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN IS HISTORICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN SHORT, STAY TUNED!
WE WILL HAVE MORE TO SHARE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
MORNING CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE AS SUNSHINE TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL. ALL SITES WILL REACH VFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF INITIALIZATION, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS DURATION. PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CEILING PASSING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT, THESE WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF
VIRGA INSTEAD OF REACHING THE SURFACE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD. BREEZY/GUSTY W
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
THEN PICK UP FROM THE N TO W TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. BREEZY
W WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN PICK UP FROM THE WSW AFTER SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JPC
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