469
FXUS63 KMPX 222318
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SHORT TERM/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER... SUNNY AND CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, AS CAPTURED ON GOES-
EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR BARRON, CHIPPEWA, AND RUSK COUNTIES
IN WISCONSIN WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING.
FOR MOST, THE FORECAST IS NICE AND TAME, HOWEVER WE ARE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH/WEST MN, WHERE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. RH'S
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN MN, WITH WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 MPH. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT HIGHER
INSTANTANEOUS GUSTS, NEAR 35 MPH, REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF EFFICIENT MIXING TO 5-7K FEET AND THE PRESENCE OF
A 700MB JETSTREAK ALOFT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RH'S DIP FURTHER,
SAY BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES...NICE WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO
A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST OF STEARNS
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MN. OF COURSE, IT WOULDN'T FIT THE THEME OF THE
CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN DRY FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO!
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG I-90. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES (60-80%)
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPAWNS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY THE CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL IOWA
EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI WILL BE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW, IN A REGION FAVORED FOR SOAKING RAINFALL,
SUPPORTED BY HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN, A
TRAILING FEATURE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORCING OVER EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS LIKELY GOING TO SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER NOTABLE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA (MORE
RAIN IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI, LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS WESTERN MN).
WPC'S LATEST QPF OUTLOOK DISPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.75-1" OF RAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MARTIN CO. (MN) TO DUNN CO. (WI).
AMOUNTS THEN DROP-OFF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH EACH TIER OF
COUNTIES NORTHWEST. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS WESTERN MN DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF DRY FUELS. AS THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DISCUSSED, THIS
COULD ALSO MEAN FURTHER DEGRADATION IN THE DROUGHT MONITOR ACROSS
WESTERN MN.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WET WEATHER MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE TO END THE
WORK WEEK AND OPEN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
AND QUIET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (FRIDAY)
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S (SATURDAY). SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO WITH ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS! BY SUNDAY, AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY (UPPER 60S) AND MONDAY (UPPER 70S!).
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPAWN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. SHOULD THIS TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE COMING DAYS, MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE "WARM
SECTOR" TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO,
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MN, LEAVING
SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IN A REGION FAVORED FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IT'S TOO SOON TO TALK SPECIFICS WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, HOWEVER CSU/NCAR ML SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION,
SPC CIRCLED A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MN IN THE DAY 7
OUTLOOK, GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN IS HISTORICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN SHORT, STAY TUNED!
WE WILL HAVE MORE TO SHARE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET ACROSS ALL SITES. OVERALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
REMAIN IN VFR THIS PERIOD. SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO
MUCH OF CONCERN. MODEL GUIDANCE DID HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF
SCATTERED -SHRA ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE BUT WITH CONFIDENCE
BELOW 20 PERCENT, DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING PRECIP MENTIONS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TOMORROW MORNING NEAR 10KTS
AFTER 14-15 TIMEFRAME.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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