516
FXUS63 KMPX 231057
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH LOOKS TO RETURN AFTERWARDS. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND MOVING EAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE SCARCELY REACHED THE GROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE CLICKED OFF LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER BANDS PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GENERALLY
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND FROM
THESE. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MILD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
60S AND NEAR 70 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH IN IOWA, BUT WEAK
FORCING AND TRACE AMOUNTS OF MUCAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE < 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WITH ANY STORMS IS LOW TODAY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY, BUT WE’LL SEE A RESURGENCE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE ATTACHED TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO IOWA. THIS
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGING
NORTH, PWATS WILL BE BOOSTED INTO THE 1” TO 1.2” RANGE, WHICH
ISN’T ABSURDLY HIGH FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT BUT IS ROUGHLY 175%
TO 200% OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
APRIL. AS A RESULT, ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT SHOWS MEAN
QPF VALUES AROUND 0.75” TO 1”, AND A ROUGHLY 40 TO 60% CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN AN INCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THERE MAY BE A CUTOFF TO THE THURSDAY PRECIPITATION
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, THOSE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA MAY ONLY SEE MARGINAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE THIS OCCURS. AGAIN, A MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT SEVERE CHANCES, BUT OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THIS PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS,
EVENTUALLY DEPARTING EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERTAKES THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO SET UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK COMES TO AN END AS WE GET
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND FORCING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY, WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT
RISK) ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MORE DETAILS
ON STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND TUESDAY, BRINGING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AFTERWARDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RISE
AND BREAK APART BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DECK OF OVERCAST
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS VERTICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PROB30S
AT RWF AND MKT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AXN WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SLOW TO NEAR 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ALSO ADDED A PROB30 FOR
13-18Z THURSDAY FOR POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, MAINLY P.M. WIND NE 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CTG
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