906
FXUS63 KMPX 240405
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
- GORGEOUS WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES. THERE WERE A FEW SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH SOME PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. TO THE SOUTH, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS IOWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST PROFILE, SO
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDER AS THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
VERY LOW. HIRES MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING,
SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED,
AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GORGEOUS SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER
GUIDANCE ALL HIGHLIGHTS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
AND SPC HAS CONTINUED THE 15% RISK AREA FOR MONDAY. ALL THIS IS
SET UP BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BRING A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE END RESULT IS
A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AWARENESS OF THE GENERAL OUTLOOK IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT
THIS POINT. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, ONE OF THE FINER
DETAILS TO IRON OUT WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT, AND
IF THERE IS MORNING CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS MN/WI TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
SUSTAINED RAINFALL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, LIKELY
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS MAY
DROP TO IFR LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING BUT THAT FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT MUCH OF A CEILING DROP SO
HAVE HELD OFF MAKING SUCH MENTION. VISIBILITY FROM RAINFALL
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR RANGE, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NW AT INITIALIZATION TO N OVERNIGHT TO E THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, OVERALL WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
CHANCES RAMP UP MIDDAY THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH SUSTAINED RAINFALL
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON PUSH AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
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