391
FXUS63 KMPX 240753
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
253 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- NEXT ROUND ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH PROVIDE
WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST
QPF WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER IOWA, BUT SOME BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION AND EXPECTED LOW TRACK THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO SIMILAR TO OUR EARLY WEEK RAIN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER
ASCENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE (NAEFS PW ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IN THIS AREA). SO IF YOU GOT A LOT OF RAIN EARLY THIS
WEEK YOU HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION DEFICIT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LOOKING AT THE WHOLE EVENT PMM FROM THE HREF
AS AN EXAMPLE THERE IS AROUND AN INCH ALONG I-90 WITH OVER A
HALF INCH ALONG A RWF-MSP-EAU LINE AND THEN A DROP OFF TO THE
NORTH. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN, BUT HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE EAST SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TODAY. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES, WARMING
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL A GREAT DAY TO GET
OUTSIDE IF YOU ARE ABLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEHIND SATURDAY'S HIGH A LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OFF OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
PROVIDE FOR A WET START TO THE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL TRANSPORT
IN WARM, MOIST AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERMAL AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES ON MONDAY
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE TO 1
KM SRH OVER 200 M2/S2 IS NOT HARD TO FIND IN MODELS AND NEITHER
IS SB CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. CSU MACHINE LEARNING
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN NOW IN THE 0.3 TO 0.45 RANGE FOR THE 0 TO 1 OCCURRENCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A STRONG SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT AS IT REMAINS MANY DAYS OUT SHIFTS CAN
AND WILL OCCUR. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PASSAGE, BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AS WE MOVE
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS MN/WI TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
SUSTAINED RAINFALL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, LIKELY
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS MAY
DROP TO IFR LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING BUT THAT FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT MUCH OF A CEILING DROP SO
HAVE HELD OFF MAKING SUCH MENTION. VISIBILITY FROM RAINFALL
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR RANGE, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NW AT INITIALIZATION TO N OVERNIGHT TO E THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, OVERALL WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
CHANCES RAMP UP MIDDAY THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH SUSTAINED RAINFALL
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON PUSH AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
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