884
FXUS63 KMPX 241953
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
253 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TODAY & TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS & STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN PWATS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.6 TO 0.9" - NOT EXACTLY SUPPORTIVE OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS &
FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE A LONGER DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT. FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.50" FOR S/C
MN & W WI. AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS S/SE MN
WHERE AMOUNTS RANGE 0.50" TO 0.75"+ CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO BETTER MOISTURE & ELEVATED INSTABILITY (STORMS).
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO ALONG THE I-90 AS MUCAPE REMAINS IN
IOWA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO. THIS IS A GOOD OLD
FASHIONED SPRING SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WON'T WARM UP MUCH PAST WHERE
WE'RE AT NOW IN THE 40S & 50S. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S &
LOWER 40S. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. THIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER & COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY & SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE EACH DAY, UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. OUR SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WARMER, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SUNDAY & MONDAY... SHOWER & STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT RATHER ISOLATED & SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DRY SPOTS
IN BETWEEN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S OVER SW MN TO
LOWER 60S IN W WI. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING THE SFC WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, S/E MN & W WI, SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE AS A
RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH/EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE
WARM SECTOR OVER S/E MN & W WI TO CLEAR OUT & TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING'S SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. SPC DAY 5 INTRODUCED A 30% OVER S MN AND MAINTAINED
THE 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS ML
PRODUCTS ECHO SPC'S CONCERN OF SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES - WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE & 40+ KTS OF SHEAR. SRH VALUES OF 150M2/S2+ ARE
PRESENT TOO. THERE WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE WARM SECTOR
BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE UNBREAKABLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE WARM
SECTOR PRODUCING A FEW SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT & LINEAR
CONVECTION (QLCS). REGARDLESS, CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT'LL SWEEP THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS W/C MN INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT FOR W WI. SEVERAL CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WIND & HAIL AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
THE FINER DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO BE
RESOLVED UNTIL HI-RES CAMS ARE AVAILABLE SUNDAY & MONDAY BUT IT'S
IMPORTANT TO PLAN AHEAD!
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S & TDS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS SHOULD OFFER US BRIEF TASTE OF SUMMER
BEFORE COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE SO WE'VE OPTED TO INCREASE
THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN THE GRIDS, THIS WILL OFFER A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE FORECAST IN THE POINT & CLICK. WE'LL QUICKLY DRY OUT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S & ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SETTLE IN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS E MN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND W WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOST TERMINALS (RWF, MKT, MSP, RNH, AND EAU) EXPERIENCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND
TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 7-12 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY LATE
MORNING.
KMSP... INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5SM THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY IFR BY 04Z TONIGHT. TIMING MAY TREND SLOWER WITH THE
ONSET OF IFR BASED ON THE LATEST RAP & HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CIGS WILL RECOVER TO MVFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD END NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY. NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH
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