330
FXUS63 KMPX 250350
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TODAY & TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS & STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREK THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN
PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 0.6 TO 0.9" - NOT EXACTLY SUPPORTIVE OF
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS & FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT. FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.50" FOR S/C MN & W WI. AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS S/SE MN WHERE AMOUNTS RANGE 0.50"
TO 0.75"+ CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO BETTER
MOISTURE & ELEVATED INSTABILITY (STORMS). THUNDER CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO ALONG THE I-90 AS MUCAPE REMAINS IN IOWA. SEVERE
CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO. THIS IS A GOOD OLD FASHIONED
SPRING SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WON'T WARM UP MUCH PAST WHERE WE'RE
AT NOW IN THE 40S & 50S. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S &
LOWER 40S. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THIS SYSTEM PULLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER & COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY & SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE EACH DAY, UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S, AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. OUR SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WARMER, SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SUNDAY & MONDAY... SHOWER & STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT RATHER ISOLATED & SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
DRY SPOTS IN BETWEEN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S
OVER SW MN TO LOWER 60S IN W WI. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE SFC WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, S/E MN & W WI, SOMETIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH/EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR OVER S/E MN & W WI TO
CLEAR OUT & TEMPERATURES TO WARM. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. SPC DAY 5
INTRODUCED A 30% OVER S MN AND MAINTAINED THE 15% CHANCE OF
SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS ML PRODUCTS ECHO
SPC'S CONCERN OF SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES - WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW 2000+
J/KG SBCAPE & 40+ KTS OF SHEAR. SRH VALUES OF 150M2/S2+ ARE
PRESENT TOO. THERE WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE WARM
SECTOR BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE UNBREAKABLE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO THE WARM SECTOR PRODUCING A FEW SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT & LINEAR CONVECTION (QLCS). REGARDLESS, CONVECTION WILL
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT'LL SWEEP THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS W/C MN INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT FOR W WI.
SEVERAL CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE
WIND & HAIL AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. THE FINER DETAILS OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL HI-RES
CAMS ARE AVAILABLE SUNDAY & MONDAY BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO PLAN
AHEAD!
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S & TDS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS SHOULD OFFER US BRIEF TASTE OF
SUMMER BEFORE COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
10-15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE SO WE'VE
OPTED TO INCREASE THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN THE GRIDS, THIS WILL
OFFER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE FORECAST IN THE POINT & CLICK. WE'LL
QUICKLY DRY OUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S & ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SETTLE IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
RAIN SHIELD IS MAINLY ATOP SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI,
ALLOWING WESTERN-CENTRAL MN TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE NW OF THE RAIN SHIELD. WHERE THE RAIN
CONTINUES, A MIXTURE OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST, LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK, AS THE RAINFALL WILL AID IN KEEPING THE LOWER
CEILINGS IN PLACE. THE RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR
STEADY LIFTING OF CEILINGS AND PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL OVERALL BECOME NE WITH SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 10KTS, THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY FEATURE SPEEDS 10-15G20KTS.
KMSP...VFR TO START WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REACHING
MSP AS THE RAIN SHIELD WITH MORE PERSISTENT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
IS JUST OFF TO THE IMMEDIATE S AND E OF MSP. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SHIELD,
POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS BUT OVERALL
VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED INTO MVFR LEVEL. WHAT
WILL DRIVE FLIGHT CONDITION DEGRADATION WILL BE CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED NOT LONG AFTER INITIALIZATION TIME, AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TAKES PLACE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
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