248  
FXUS63 KMPX 251724  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1224 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL EXIT WEST CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN BY MID-MORNING (SOONER IN MINNESOTA), LEADING TO A  
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD DAY.  
 
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
 
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-EASTERN MINNESOTA AT PRESENT, BUT  
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. A SMALLER AREA OF RAIN HAS  
MOVED INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT THAT IS  
ANTICIPATED TO FALL APART WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY  
ADDITIONAL QPF FROM THE WEST MN RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. AREAS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SE MN CAN  
EXPECT TO SEE A FEW TENTHS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY LATE  
MORNING. TAKING A LOOK AT WHERE THINGS STAND WITH RESPECT TO  
WHAT IS TYPICAL BY LATE APRIL, WITH 5.42" LIQUID PRECIP SINCE  
JANUARY 1ST, MSP IS ONLY BEHIND NORMAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION  
BY 0.28". WITH THIS LATEST EVENT, EAU CLAIRE IS ACTUALLY  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND ST.CLOUD IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW. WHILE YEAR-  
TO-DATE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IS ON TRACK SO FAR, WE ARE  
ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE NORMAL INCREASES BY ABOUT A  
TENTH A DAY. SO ANY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY CREATE A  
DEFICIT. FORTUNATELY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, WE DON'T LOOK TO  
HAVE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE!  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND CLOUDS  
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES  
TAKING HOLD BY TONIGHT. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S, THE REWARD WILL BE  
GRAND ON SATURDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 12 HOURS OF SUN AND HIGHS IN  
THE MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE AT BAY FOR MOST (EXCEPT  
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE  
POSSIBLE), CREATING A PRACTICALLY PERFECT FORECAST FOR THE LAST  
SATURDAY OF APRIL.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.  
SUNDAY WON'T BE THE MAIN EVENT, BUT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE  
PRESENT NONETHELESS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM AIR AND  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION FROM  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MINIMAL (LESS THAN 0.10"),  
ASIDE FROM AREAS THAT MAY GET CONVECTION. LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT COULD BRING SOME  
STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DESPITE EARLY CHANCES  
FOR STORMS, STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND  
MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST AND  
LOW 80S FOR THOSE IN SW MN. THIS WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE ATMOSPHERE  
FOR WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS DISTANCE FROM THE EVENT (4+  
DAYS), SPC UPDATES THE SEVERE OUTLOOK ONCE A DAY AND THAT SHOULD  
HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BEING SAID, IT IS FAIRLY  
SAFE TO SAY THE 15-30% RISK MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
WILL PREVAIL AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE SURFACE-BASED  
CAPE, 40+ KTS SHEAR, WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. LOOKING AT  
THE ECMWF'S EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI), BOTH FORECAST CAPE AND  
TEMPS FOR MONDAY HAVE EFI VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 0.8 (80%). THIS  
GENERALLY SIGNIFIES AN UNUSUAL EVENT BASED ON OUR AREA'S  
M-CLIMATE. THE M-CLIMATE IS A SET OF MEDIUM RANGE RE- FORECASTS  
MADE UP FROM THE SAME CALENDAR DATES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS,  
AMONG OTHER THINGS. THE SHIFT OF TAILS IS 0, MEANING VERY FEW  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING AN EXTREME EVENT. THE TAKE HOME  
POINT? UNUSUALLY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND MAXIMUM TEMPS CAN BE  
FORECAST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE, BUT EXTREMES ARE UNLIKELY. CIN  
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT THE GEFS AND GEPS ARE  
FORECASTING RELATIVELY BREAKABLE VALUES (-30 TO -50 J/KG). ALL  
SEVERE THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP. THE FINER  
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS HI-RES MODELS ARE AVAILABLE  
LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT EXPECT A RUMBLE-Y DAY ON MONDAY.  
 
THINGS WILL CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A  
FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY TUESDAY, REIGNING THE  
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY. WARMER  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE  
NORTH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STALLED FRONT IS  
SLOWLY BUT SURELY DISSIPATING. ONLY SITE NOT IN VFR IS EAU, AND  
THAT SITE LOOKS TO GO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL THEN  
REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY  
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. NE WINDS IN THE  
8-12KT RANGE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL GO  
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE TOMORROW IN  
THE 5-10KT RANGE.  
 
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THRU  
THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY THEN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL GO  
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE AROUND 10KTS  
TOMORROW.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.  
MON...RA/TSRA WITH MVFR-IFR LIKELY. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.  
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.  
 
 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...PV  
AVIATION...JPC  
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