867
FXUS63 KMPX 251907
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
207 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
- HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON & EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 50S & 60S AS THIS MORNING'S PRECIPITATION EXITS DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT
FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S &
LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WILL SUPPORT A 36 HOUR PERIOD OF DRY & SEASONABLE SPRING WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS &
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY & MONDAY... SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP BEHIND THE
SFC HIGH. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE, BUT ONE CAN EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WE'LL DRY OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL PRESENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN W MN.
A POTENT SPRING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR 35+
KTS AND 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE & PRODUCE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WIND & TORNADO
CONCERNS ARE LOW GIVEN THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ELEVATED.
MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS LIKELY REMAIN
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. OUR 990-ISH MB
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM S DAK INTO CENTRAL
MN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ANY
ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXIT THE AREA BY LUNCH TIME MONDAY. THIS
MORNING CONVECTION MAY PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE SECOND ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. ALOFT, THE TROUGH
REMAINS SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WITH SWERLY FLOW. THIS ISN'T A
PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
RARELY PRODUCES A GENERIC TEXTBOOK SET UP. THE MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DO TWO THINGS: 1) KEEP THE FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD IN
THE WARM SECTOR & 2) COOL THE MID-LEVELS & MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW. THE FINER DETAILS WILL WAIT TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER THIS WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON WHERE WE'LL DRY OUT - ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER. THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL NOT
BE ONE OF THOSE MID-SUMMER EVENTS WHERE "IF WE BREAK THE CAP IT'LL
BE BAD" DAYS THAT RARELY PRODUCE. RECOVERY WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL & MID LEVEL FLOW. THERE WILL BE 35 TO 45KTS +
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, 1000 TO 2000+ J/KG SURFACE INSTABILITY,
8.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES, AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. SO WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE - THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MANY STORMS DEVELOP & WHAT STORM MODE WILL
PREVAIL? INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPER CELLULAR BEFORE GRADUALLY MERGING INTO AN MCS MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SO ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
EXIT MN BY SUNSET & WESTERN WI MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS BEEN GREAT DISCUSSION ON THE OPERATIONS FLOOR WITH WHAT
THE FAILURE MODES ARE. PREVIOUS EVENTS (ANALOGS) HIGHLIGHT SOME
BIGGER HISTORICAL EVENTS. THIS REGION'S HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAKS TYPICALLY OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE'RE NOT
OVERWHELMED WITH TOO MUCH INSTABILITY DURING OUR PEAK SEVERE SEASON
IN EARLY TO MID SUMMER. THIS ISN'T THE PERFECT SCENARIO BUT IT'S ONE
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ITS NEVER TOO EARLY TO PLAN
AHEAD FOR THE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
MORNING & AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH NEEDED STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER TO END APRIL & START
MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, IN THE 60S, WITH FEW
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STALLED FRONT IS
SLOWLY BUT SURELY DISSIPATING. ONLY SITE NOT IN VFR IS EAU, AND
THAT SITE LOOKS TO GO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL THEN
REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. NE WINDS IN THE
8-12KT RANGE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE TOMORROW IN
THE 5-10KT RANGE.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THRU
THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY THEN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE AROUND 10KTS
TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
MON...RA/TSRA WITH MVFR-IFR LIKELY. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
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