920
FXUS63 KMPX 112328
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COVERAGE AREA DUE TO THE FORECAST
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
- CRITICAL & ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST AGAIN ON
MONDAY.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH CONTINUED HOT, SUNNY, AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (60S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
IT'S BEEN A HOT & SUNNY & BREEZY MOTHER'S DAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST SO FAR TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS FAR W MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SET UP
OVER THE REGION & WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT & BREEZY
WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT'S BEEN BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-
20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. OUR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
CU THAT HAVE POPPED UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. MSP IS
WELL ON IT'S WAY TO BREAKING TODAY'S RECORD HIGH (88) AS OF 1 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S & 60S OVERNIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING QUICKLY ON MONDAY. MADISON, MN REMAINS THE HOT SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURE OF 99 & A DEW POINT OF 29 WHICH MEANS THEY HAVE A
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE OF 8%...
THE PRIMARY MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRETCH OF EARLY SEASON HEAT IS
THE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CULPRIT IS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT - WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A DRY HEAT SIMILAR
TO ARIZONA RATHER THAN A HUMID HEAT LIKE WE EXPERIENCE IS MID-LATE
SUMMER MORE SIMILARLY TO THE GULF COAST. THIS STRETCH OF DRY HEAT &
BREEZY S/SSW WINDS LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, INCLUDING
MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE STATE OF MINNESOTA THRU LATE EVENING. FOR MONDAY, THERE IS A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SIMILAR AREAS THAT'LL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WHEN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
EXPIRES. SO WHAT DOES A RED FLAG WARNING MEAN? THERE ARE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FIRES TO QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL. WE ENCOURAGE
FOLKS TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL INFORMATION REGARDING BURN BANS AND
AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SUPPORT UNINTENDED FIRE DEVELOPMENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S & LOWER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA YET AGAIN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA FOR MONDAY AND IT'S LIKELY THAT AN
UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
THIS STRETCH OF DRY HEAT DOESN'T LET UP UNTIL THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEK. OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESOLVE ITSELF FROM THE
SERIES OF CUT OFF LOW PRESSURES OVER THE PAST WEEK+. WE'VE SEEN AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY PREVENTING THE
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN
IS LIKELY A VARIATION OF A "REX BLOCK" WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DIRECTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN
THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER IN THE
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHEN A WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING US OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN OVER TWO WEEKS! THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT AS WE NEAR, BUT THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MN & W WI. LIKEWISE, THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THEIR SWO FOR THURSDAY, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE TIMING/TRACK OF OUR SFC SYSTEM & MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK FEATURE. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND OUR LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AS A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL
BACK INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN 170-190 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AT 20-23KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A WINDOW OF LLWS IS PRESENT FOR AXN/STC/RWF
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 12Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR NOW THAT
OUR DIURNAL CU HAS MOVED NORTH, WITH VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
KMSP...A BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE FROM 08-11Z, HOWEVER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE OR LONG LIVED.
THE BETTER LLWS ENVIRONMENT IS NORTHWEST OF THE CITIES, CLOSER
TO AXN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10G20KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10G20KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO SW 10-15G20-25KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
SITE |FORECAST| RECORD
------------------------
MSP | 90 | 88 (1900)
STC | 92 | 90 (1911)
EAU | 84 | 89 (1922)
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-POLK-
RUSK-ST. CROIX.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR BARRON-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH
CLIMATE...WFO MPX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page