518
FXUS63 KMPX 130524
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AS WELL,
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE.
- AIR QUALITY ALERT (DUE TO OZONE) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND THE TWIN CITIES METRO THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING,
WITH THE HAZARD POTENTIALLY RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW.
- WARM AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM (AND EVENTUAL COOLDOWN) ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
LARGELY WARM, WINDY, AND OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ALLOW AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE AGAIN ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO
SOAR INTO THE 90S, WITH MADISON, MN READING 95 DEGREES AS OF
2PM. TODAY'S CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, NO PRECIP) WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS THIS PATTERN BY THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT. TODAY'S RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ESSENTIALLY ALL OF MINNESOTA
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING. AS THE WEEK GOES ON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE VIA MOISTURE ADVECTION, MITIGATING THE FIRE
CONCERN SLIGHTLY.
ANOTHER HAZARD RESULTING FROM THE EXTENDED HEAT AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS A REDUCTION IN AIR QUALITY. IN COORDINATION WITH
MINNESOTA'S POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCY, AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA (INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO). ACCORDING TO MN
PCA, GROUND-LEVEL OZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TWO TYPES OF POLLUTANTS
(VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS AND NITROGEN OXIDES) TO REACT IN THE
AIR TO PRODUCE GROUND-LEVEL OZONE. OZONE WILL BE HIGHEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN SUNSHINE IS MOST
ABUNDANT, AND TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST. OZONE WILL BE LOW IN THE
MORNING, LATE EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ALERT IS POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUNNY SKIES AND HEAT PERSIST.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
HEADS OUR WAY. THE ECMWF MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS FORECASTING
A SUB-990 HPA LOW, WHICH PLACES IT IN THE MINIMUM BIN FOR MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO 1-1.5". THIS WOULD BE A VERY WARM WELCOME TO THE
REGION AS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DUE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED TO FAR SE MN AND SW WI, MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL ONLY RUN FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE ALL THE WAY
TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK, BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT
AXN/RWF, 15-20 KTS AT STC, MKT, & MSP, AND 10-15 KTS AT
RNH/EAU. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHOULD SEE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOP BETWEEN 5-10K FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10G20KTS.
THU...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO SW 10-15G20-25KTS.
FRI...MVFR/RA LIKELY. WIND W TO NW 10-15G20-25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR BENTON-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...STRUS
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