591
FXUS63 KMPX 131044
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS.
- AIR QUALITY ALERT (DUE TO OZONE) FOR NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA,
INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES AND
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- CONVECTION MIDDAY THURSDAY COULD POSE A HAZARD OF ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE STILL-STALLED
WAVY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
ATTENDANT FROM ONE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVINCE, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO SOCAL WITH MULTIPLE SMALL LOWS ALONG IT. ALOFT, THE
PATTERN REMAINS OF SOLID SOUTHWESTERN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE DEEP LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND PACNW.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TODAY FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION, LESSER WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN-EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA,
AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THAT DEEP
LOW MIGRATES NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERN MN STILL
FEATURES THE BREEZIEST WINDS BEING IN OPEN COUNTRY AND THE
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA, ALONG WITH THE DRIEST
AIR AS RHS OUT WEST AGAIN DROP TO THE TEENS. HOWEVER, FOR
TODAY, THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE NORTHWARD MOVING SE CONUS LOW
WILL ADVECT IN GREATER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA WHILE WINDS DROP OFF. THUS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, NOT THE
GREATER EXPANSE SEEN YESTERDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT THE CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE DEGRADED AIR QUALITY DUE TO GROUND-LEVEL OZONE. MPCA
HAS CONTINUED ITS ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ALL OF OUR MN
COUNTIES EXCEPT 2 (GOODHUE & CHISAGO) THRU 9PM TONIGHT.
A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO TRY TO DEVELOP ISOLATED RA/TSRA
OVER FAR SE MN INTO SW WI, OWING TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL DEEP
DRY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN CAMS WHICH
KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW RETURNS MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON BUT VIRGA IS MORE THE ORDER OF THE DAY
RATHER THAN BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE. AS
SUCH, HAVE KEPT TODAY DRY.
THE TRANSITION DAY TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK IS
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GAINS IMPETUS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE NOW-OPEN TROUGH ALOFT OUT WEST SLIDES
EASTWARD, COINCIDING WITH THE EASTERN DEEP LOW MOVING TO THE
GREAT LAKES-MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OPENING UP. THIS IS HIGHLY
EVIDENCED BY THE DEWPOINT FORECAST. YESTERDAY, TD'S DROPPED TO
THE 30S. TODAY, TD'S RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN MN TO
THE LOWER 50S IN WESTERN WI. WEDNESDAY, TD'S WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE 50S WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN THE SAME FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW, RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER 90S IN WESTERN MN.
THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
ONLY RUN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THUS,
THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY INCREASE THE INSTABILITY LEVELS,
PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN MN, WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUS, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL MAKES
INROADS TO WESTERN MN. THE CONCERN TURNS TO CONVECTION AS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA BECOMES PARTIALLY PLACED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE CENTER, DROPPING
POTENTIALLY TO ~990MB, ARRIVING FROM THE DAKOTAS IN ADVANCE OF
THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BETTER FRONTAL
DYNAMICS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCING A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EVEN WITHOUT THE STRONGER
STORMS, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM
AND TROUGH ALOFT SLIDE EAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH REGENERATIVE DYNAMICS,
INCLUDING AN 850-700MB JET AROUND 60KTS AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING
TO THE LOW-MID 60S, WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THOUGH IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF
THE DAY TO GET THERE, MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
OVER MAINLY EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI LATE THURSDAY. EXACTLY
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DEVELOPS STILL HAS SOME
UNCERTAINTY, BUT SPC HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
OHIO VALLEY FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO THIS DOES NECESSITATE GIVING IT
DUE ATTENTION TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.
AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO, QPFS COULD BE FAIRLY PLENTIFUL FOR
SOME LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTENT (I.E. PWATS STILL 1.00-1.50")
AT PLAY. OBVIOUSLY, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY WELCOME
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HEAT AND DRYNESS OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED
RECENTLY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF COLD
FRONTS SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA, ONE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION STARTING THE END
OF THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL ONLY RUN FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S(!)
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES PLUNGE ALL THE WAY TO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S(!!), AND THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THESE RANGES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE BY MID-MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS WESTERN MN (AXN/RWF). WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP BETWEEN 5-10K FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10G20KTS.
THU...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO SW 10-15G20-25KTS.
FRI...MVFR/RA LIKELY. WIND W 10-15G20-25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...STRUS
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