066
FXUS63 KMPX 132352
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS, LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS.
- AIR QUALITY ALERT (DUE TO OZONE) FOR NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA,
INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
- HOT & BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH GREATER RISK ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
ANOTHER HOT & BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS STAGNANT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 90S ACROSS W MN & MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE THANKS TO THE SSE FLOW THAT HAS
TAPPED INTO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE
CONUS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE CAN BE OBSERVED BY THE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER SE MN AND INTO W WI. CRITICAL & ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AND THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS WE'LL SEE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TO GET AWAY WITH AN SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAR W MN BUT THAT
DECISION WILL BE BUMPED TO THE NIGHT SHIFT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEP TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT INTO
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A DAY 2 SWO
HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HAIL & WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS STORMS PUSH
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOW 980S AS IT TRACKS OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. THIS SET UP PRESENTS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE LIMITING FACTOR COMES DOWN TO
TIMING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION & INITIATION OF THE SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS THURSDAY PM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECAYING MCS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH E MN THURSDAY AM WHILE ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY
RAMPS UP BEHIND IT. SPC DID UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THEIR SLIGHT
RISK TO AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) FOR DAY 3 (THURSDAY). THIS
INCLUDES MUCH OF OUR WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES ARE PRIMARILY IN A MARGINAL
RISK (1 OF 5) FOR THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE'RE ABLE TO SEE SOME
RECOVERY ACROSS C/E MN AND W WI. HOW MUCH RECOVERY WE'RE ABLE TO
SEE WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY INTO FUTURE UPDATES. RIGHT NOW, THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WHERE ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY TO NARROW IN
ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BASED ON WHERE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TRACK WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF BY END OF DAY
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SPRING &
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S & 30S
FOR SOME. THIS WILL GIVE OUR AC UNITS A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A COOLER, DAMPER LOOK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
THE HIGH BASED CU-FIELD MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON
SIGNIFIES THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN TONIGHT, BUT WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE A MORE
ROBUST CU-FIELD AREAWIDE, WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET IN WESTERN WI, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ADDED
A PROB30 FOR TS WED AFTERNOON AT EAU. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR WEST AS MSP & RNH, BUT FOR NOW,
KEPT ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE BETTER
BETTER INSTABILITY NOTED OUT TOWARD EAU AND DROPPING OFF SOME AS
YOU HEAD WEST TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES. WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ONLY A SMALL
DIURNAL TREND IN SPEEDS EXPECTED.
KMSP...RAP SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW NEARLY 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE, WITH MINIMAL CAPPING, SO YOU CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS
DEEPER EAST OF MSP, SO KEPT MSP DRY. LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY
MORNING IS WHEN WE'LL HAVE TO REALLY WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...A MORNING ROUND AND AFTERNOON ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS BCMG SW 20-25G30-35 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY. WIND WSW 20-25G30-35 KTS.
SAT...MVFR MRNG CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG
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