508
FXUS63 KMPX 140550
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS, LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS.
- AIR QUALITY ALERT (DUE TO OZONE) FOR NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA,
INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
- HOT & BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH GREATER RISK ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
ANOTHER HOT & BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS STAGNANT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S ACROSS W MN & MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE THANKS TO THE SSE
FLOW THAT HAS TAPPED INTO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE CAN BE OBSERVED
BY THE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER SE MN AND INTO W WI.
CRITICAL & ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AND THE CURRENT
THOUGHT IS WE'LL SEE ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO GET AWAY WITH AN SPS
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR FAR W MN BUT THAT DECISION WILL BE BUMPED TO THE
NIGHT SHIFT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS
WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEP TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A DAY 2 SWO
HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HAIL & WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS
STORMS PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOW 980S AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD THURSDAY. THIS SET UP PRESENTS A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE LIMITING FACTOR
COMES DOWN TO TIMING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION & INITIATION OF
THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THURSDAY PM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
DECAYING MCS WILL PERSIST THROUGH E MN THURSDAY AM WHILE
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY RAMPS UP BEHIND IT. SPC DID UPGRADE
PORTIONS OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK TO AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) FOR
DAY 3 (THURSDAY). THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF OUR WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES ARE
PRIMARILY IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
WE'RE ABLE TO SEE SOME RECOVERY ACROSS C/E MN AND W WI. HOW MUCH
RECOVERY WE'RE ABLE TO SEE WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY INTO FUTURE
UPDATES. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WHERE ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL
BE NECESSARY TO NARROW IN ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL VARY BASED ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF QPF BY END OF DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SPRING &
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S & 30S
FOR SOME. THIS WILL GIVE OUR AC UNITS A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A COOLER, DAMPER LOOK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET, BUT THERE WILL
BE MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER EASTERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI MID-TO-LATE DAY. OTHERWISE, A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN WI LATE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING EAU AND POSSIBLY RNH, BUT SHOULD
STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND NOT IMPACT ANY OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING A BIT FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD.
KMSP...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY TAF BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH MSP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF DURATION SO
BEST TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE ADDITION OF PRECIP MENTION IN
LATER ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY. WIND WSW 20-25G30-35 KTS.
SAT...MVFR MRNG CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G20-25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
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