031
FXUS63 KMPX 152032
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY SW WINDS TO 40-50 MPH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER PATTERN TOMORROW INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS FIRED ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME. SO FAR SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
FUNNELS/LANDSPOUT-LIKE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS STORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
STORMS AS THESE AREAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS INCREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO GROW
OUT OF THE MINISUPERCELL FORM THEY HAD TAKEN EARLIER INTO
LARGER SEVERE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. EARLIER TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN OCCURRED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED DIRECTLY ON A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THAT REGION, WHILE STORMS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND DISPLACED FROM
THAT BOUNDARY HAVE YET TO PRODUCE CONFIRMED TORNADOES. RADAR
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO
INTERSECT THE LINE OF STORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MSP
METRO, AND THIS PART OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE THE AREA TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MORE ROBUST NATURE OF THESE STORMS, STRONGER TORNADOES WILL
BE A VERY REAL THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL 2"+.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AT WHICH POINT OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. FOR
THIS REASON THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON, THE
ADVISORY INCLUDES SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER MISERABLE DAY WEATHER-WISE, AS IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND EXPECT PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS.
WHILE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE A LINE OF STORMS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MN, FOLLOWED BY VERY
GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW. STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE
ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR AXN TO NEAR MKT
AND THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES MSP AS A SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE, AND A
BROKEN/SOLID LINE AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST TOWARD EAU AROUND
21Z. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, GENERALLY AN HOUR OR LESS,
BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ONCE THIS LINE
PASSES SKIES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SCATTERED VFR BUT THAT WILL
BRING THE ONSET OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 KTS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. WESTERN MN SHOULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KMSP...SCATTERED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KMKT WILL GROW
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, REACHING MSP AROUND 19Z. DURATION
WILL LAST 30-45 MINUTES. LINE SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN
NATURE WHEN IT ARRIVES, SO SOME IMPACTS AT KMSP ARE LIKELY, AND
IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES OVERHEAD THERE COULD BE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 KTS AND HAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SWERLY BEHIND THE
LINE, INITIALLY AROUND 190-200 DEGREES VEERING TO AROUND 220-230
BY 22Z. GUSTS OVER 30KTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT DECREASE EARLY FRI MORNING.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AROUND
22Z-00Z THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR MRNG CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G20-25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND ESE 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH
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