815
FXUS63 KMPX 160548
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY SW WINDS TO 40-50 MPH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER PATTERN TOMORROW INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS FIRED ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME. SO FAR SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
FUNNELS/LANDSPOUT-LIKE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS STORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
STORMS AS THESE AREAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS INCREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO GROW
OUT OF THE MINISUPERCELL FORM THEY HAD TAKEN EARLIER INTO
LARGER SEVERE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. EARLIER TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN OCCURRED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED DIRECTLY ON A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THAT REGION, WHILE STORMS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND DISPLACED FROM
THAT BOUNDARY HAVE YET TO PRODUCE CONFIRMED TORNADOES. RADAR
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO
INTERSECT THE LINE OF STORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MSP
METRO, AND THIS PART OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE THE AREA TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MORE ROBUST NATURE OF THESE STORMS, STRONGER TORNADOES WILL
BE A VERY REAL THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL 2"+.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AT WHICH POINT OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. FOR
THIS REASON THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON, THE
ADVISORY INCLUDES SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER MISERABLE DAY WEATHER-WISE, AS IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND EXPECT PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS.
WHILE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN ND
TRAVELS EAST ALSO. INCOMING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW (AND MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE LOW) WILL ALSO CAUSE A
GRADUAL REDUCTION TO LOW-END MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST
TO EAST. ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES OVER MN TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKING
MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MN AND THIS
EVENING FOR WI. VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY BE ABOVE 3SM,
THOUGH, BRIEF PERIODS BELOW 3SM ARE POSSIBLE. BUT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN WESTERLY, TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MN AND INTO WI TODAY. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MN WHERE SUSTAINED VALUES OF 15-25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF
40-45 KNOTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNRISE.
KMSP...ADDED SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF 45 KNOTS FROM 08-13Z THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-35 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS BEGIN AFTER 18Z WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED FROM 21-02Z. IFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR MRNG CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G20-25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...CTG
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