948
FXUS63 KMPX 161208
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 40-50MPH TODAY.
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ACROSS MULTIPLE
CHANNELS INCLUDING IR, WATER VAPOR, AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AS
THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
CHURN OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST HOW FAR THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SINCE THE AFTERNOON AS THE ANGLE OF THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED TO BEING WNW TO ESE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OCCLUDED THIS FAR INTO THE
SYSTEM'S LIFE CYCLE. DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEING STACKED
UNDERNEATH THE OCCLUSION OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON,
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE RAW COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED
TO THUS FAR IN MAY WITH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50MPH
STRONGEST IN WESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE SURFACE LOW SPINS OVER
THE REGION, FAVORING WESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARDS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
LATER TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FOR ANY SINGLE
AREA WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH UP TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
BY 18Z SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH A WEDGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR FROST IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR FROST FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AS THE 850MB NOSE OF COOLEST AIR
WILL STALL IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE
WEEK, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARDS OVER THE ROCKIES APPROACHING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING OUT NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE GREATER ENSEMBLE SUITE, THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SITUATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/SODAK BY TUESDAY MORNING
DRAGGING A STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES WITHIN
GUIDANCE ARRIVES AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARDS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COOLER AIR WRAPPED WITHIN COMPARED TO THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SEEMS QUITE LIMITED DESPITE DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BREAKS DOWN WITH LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DIFFERENT
MODELS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY, CAUSING MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR MN
TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WI TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW AS IT PASSES WEST
TO EAST OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WI. VISIBILITIES COULD DECREASE
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE GREATER MOISTURE POOLING AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS OCCUR. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AXN AND MKT WHERE
THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES END THIS EVENING,
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
CIGS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET. PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TURN TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE LOW PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG WITH THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE EXPECTED FROM WESTERN TO
SOUTHERN MN. HERE, SUSTAINED VALUES WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW TONIGHT.
KMSP...ARRIVAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED BY 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FROM 21-00Z
WHILE CIGS FALL TO 1000 FEET. IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 00-08Z
TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR MRNG CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G20-25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG
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