111
FXUS63 KMPX 161928
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
228 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS THIS EVENING AND COMES TO AN
END OVERNIGHT.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A REMARKABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW (EARLIER AS LOW AS 980 MB) IS
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY WIND-
DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT BUT
STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY PRECIP-WISE BUT STEADY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE DAY, AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN
MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT A
BIT ON SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND A RECENT
SOUTHERLY TREND OF THIS TRACK MAY MEAN PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE
IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
TREND A BIT NORTHWARD IT COULD BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS OF 1"
TO 2" INTO SOUTHERN MN, BUT FOR NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS IOWA. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW 70S) BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN MN AND WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN WI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DROP THAN
GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED BUT STILL SEEING CIGS DROP INTO MVFR
SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN, AND WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT THE
STRONGEST WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING A
SHIFT TO NWERLY. RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED AND WILL CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH THE EVENING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER 09Z. SWERLY
CROSSWIND CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO
35KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE
TO BELOW 30KTS AFTER 19-20Z. WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 01Z, AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO NWERLY BY 03Z. SOME INCREASE
IN GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFTER THIS WIND
SHIFT WITH DECREASING GUSTS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH
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