748
FXUS63 KMPX 170532
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS THIS EVENING AND COMES TO AN
END OVERNIGHT.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A REMARKABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW (EARLIER AS LOW AS 980 MB) IS
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY WIND-
DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT BUT
STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY PRECIP-WISE BUT STEADY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE DAY, AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN
MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT A
BIT ON SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND A RECENT
SOUTHERLY TREND OF THIS TRACK MAY MEAN PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE
IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
TREND A BIT NORTHWARD IT COULD BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS OF 1"
TO 2" INTO SOUTHERN MN, BUT FOR NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS IOWA. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW 70S) BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY FROM OUR
EASTERN TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS OVERCAST LOW STRATUS
PERSISTS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. A GRADUAL RISE IN CIGS TO MVFR
IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR MAY OCCUR BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
BREAK APART. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MN. HERE, SUSTAINED VALUES WILL NEAR 20 KNOTS WHILE
GUSTS REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS SATURDAY EVENING
WHILE GAINING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
KMSP...ADDED A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS MSP
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR FROM LINGERING SHOWERS. CIGS
REMAIN NEAR 1000 FEET UNTIL ABOUT 20Z BEFORE THEY IMPROVE TO
2000 FEET. VFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 08Z SUNDAY AS CLOUDS RISE
AND BREAK APART. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25
KNOTS TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY SLOW THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 15-20G30KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...CTG
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