853
FXUS63 KMPX 172004
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT, COLD TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG I-90, LOWEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-94. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
TONIGHT...A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS WITHIN CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION, THIS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FORM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS.
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW 30S, SO DID EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
COUNTIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON ON SUNDAY,
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 60S. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHEAST AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHERE
IT WILL FUJIWHARA WITH ANOTHER WAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NEBRASKA, AND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH OUR REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH,
AND THIS WILL HAVE THE SAME EFFECT ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, ONLY
THIS TIME THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FARTHER NORTH,
BRINING RAIN ACROSS IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN
WI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL MAKE IT, WITH THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE CURRENTLY BEING
A GOOD PROXY FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE. ONE THING THAT'S FOR SURE
IS INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT, WHICH MEANS A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. FOLKS THAT DO GET UNDER THE HEAVIER
BAND OF RAIN COULD PICK UP OVER AN INCH, BUT IT WILL BE FALLING
RATHER STEADY IN STRATIFORM STATE, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
THREATS AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD, THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, MORE
SUNSHINE, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST AND STRUGGLE TO LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE SKIES START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
KMSP...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING, AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY COULD STRUGGLE TO
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND RISE ABOVE 3000 FT. KEPT
A SCATTERED 2500 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST, GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA LATE. WIND E 15-20G30-35 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR/MVFR WITH RA. WIND ENE 15-20G30-35 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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