945
FXUS63 KMPX 182325
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY OF FROST POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
- SOAKING RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
IN WESTERN MN AND ALONG I-90, LOWEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-94.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OB SHOWED CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT, THESE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FROST ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SKY COVER AS SEEN FROM LAST NIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES BORDERLINE IN THE LOW 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE AS INCREASED IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOMORROW, BUT THEN SETTLING ACROSS
THE REGION SOUTH OF I-94 ON TUESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MUCAPE AT THE ONSET ON MONDAY, SO
COULD HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT THE CAPE IS LOW, AND SO
TOO IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ON TUESDAY, LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE THE DRIVER IN THE PRECIPITATION
DESPITE ANY INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD,
STRATIFORM RAIN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
ON RAINFALL TOTALS, WHILE THE GEFS AND CFS ARE DRIER.
ONE THING THAT IS FOR SURE IS FOLKS UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OR HIGHER, AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO
NEAR NOTHING. RIGHT NOW THIS GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG I-94,
BUT THAT COULD SHIFT. SINCE THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM RAIN, THE
RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW SINCE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
LOOKING AHEAD, THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON WEDNESDAY, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AND MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW.
WINDS CALMING SOME THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS COMING DOWN. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND STAY UP, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS, AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND HOLDING UNTIL THE RAIN STARTS TOMORROW/TOMORROW
NIGHT (TIMING VARIES FROM TERMINAL TO TERMINAL SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS). GENERALLY MVFR WITH RAIN, BUT SOME IFR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. KEPT IT MVFR FOR NOW TO GIVE SOME TIME TO GAIN
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IFR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR.
KMSP...RAIN TO START LATE IN THIS PERIOD, BUT MORE IMPACTFUL FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. THIS
EVENING THE GUSTS HAVE FALLEN OFF,BUT THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW.
TOMORROW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR
SOME OF THE RUNWAYS AND IMPACT AARS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC -TSRA/IFR. WIND NE 15-20G30 KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NE 5-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page