139
FXUS63 KMPX 032312
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING,
LINGERING IN WISCONSIN THROUGH 7PM.
- DEGRADED AIR QUALITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE PERSISTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK, BUT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A GOOD SOAKING TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ARE PROGRESSING EAST AND THINGS
WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. AS OF 1PM, WFO MPX OBSERVED JUST UNDER
AN INCH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MSP AIRPORT WAS SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN THIS, WITH AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AS OF 1PM.
SURFACE SMOKE AND ASSOCIATED AIR QUALITY CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH UNHEALTHY TO UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION (PER THE MN POLLUTION CONTROL
AGENCY). THESE CATEGORIES ARE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM THIS MORNING'S
VERY UNHEALTHY CATEGORY, WHERE AQI VALUES IN THE PM2.5 CATEGORY
WERE IN EXCESS OF 200.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE A NICE DAY WITH LIMITED
SKY COVER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE UPTICK
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN SURFACE TO
400MB WIND KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
TRANSPORT PWAT VALUES OF ~1" NORTHWARD. THIS IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE JOGGING DOWN FROM
CANADA. A LOBE OF VORTICITY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD,
BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF RAIN. A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS, RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER
END OF THE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE.
QUICKLY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS, A BROADER MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
EJECT DOWN FROM CANADA, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHOULD BE STRONGER -
HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECASTING 30+ MPH WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. WRAP-AROUND CAA SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL, QPF LOOKS TO BE
AROUND ANOTHER FEW TENTHS OR SO (HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DAY 4-6 WPC
QPF), WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.
SO, TO SUMMARIZE... NO SINGLE DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END AND WILL BE DONE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT MAYBE EAU FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION THE SMOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH MSP AND
THE WI TERMINALS STILL SEEING MVFR SMOKE. THIS WILL COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING AT MSP AND EARLY TONIGHT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT VFR FOR THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS.
KMSP...MVFR SMOKE TO LINGER FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND N TO NE 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR BCMG -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED/PV
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page