716
FXUS63 KMPX 041735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE DEPARTS EAST.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK, BUT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
WILD FIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACTS SITES EAST OF LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM KANABEC DOWN TO MARTIN CO. VISIBILITIES AT THESE SITES RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 5 STATUE MILES TO NEAR A MILE. COMBINED WITH THIS
SMOKE, ARE AREAS OF FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS MAINLY IN WISCONSIN. THE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER LONG
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY PESTER THE MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG OF
LESS THAN A MILE MAY BE COMMON SO ENSURE TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
EXTRA SPACE IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING. RRFS SMOKE GUIDANCE DETAILS
THAT THE MOST CONCENTRATED SMOKE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD BEYOND
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL
WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY EXIST ALOFT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN
TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S FOR BOTH DAYS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONSISTS OF BROAD TROUGHING NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL AID IN THE GENERATION OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE BACK
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
DAKOTAS, A VORTICITY LOBE DEVELOPS ON THE WAVE'S AXIS. MEANWHILE
FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS SHIFTS SOUTH WHICH WILL DRIVE AN INCREASE OF
PWAT VALUES NEAR ONE INCH. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SOURCE OF
FORCING, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOTED WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE. A FEW CELLS COULD BRING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE NEAR A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF CANADA. THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT GIVEN FORECAST WIND GUSTS
NEARING 25-30KTS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF WRAP-AROUND CAA SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE TRENDING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WHICH HELPS RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF ANY SINGULAR DAY BEING A
WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL START NEAR 70 AND
WARM TO THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
SATELLITE DISPLAYS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TIED TO THE MATURE CU ACROSS CENTRAL MN, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIPITATION MENTION WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT AXN/STC. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY. WIND NE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...STRUS
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