659
FXUS63 KMPX 042359
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH RAINFALL REACHES THE GROUND. A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MORA.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE & WEAK SURFACE LOW. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS BEING MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5" ARE MOST LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, & WESTERN WISCONSIN, SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE SPORADIC WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20" OR
LESS.
ANOTHER, MORE POTENT, SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OUR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERIC
LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND,
BUT DETERMINISTIC RUNS ZERO IN ON THE MOST LIKELY CHANCES FOR
RAIN COMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK
SIMILAR TO THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM, WITH ANOTHER 0.25-0.5"
LIKELY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS INTO A DISTINCT UPPER LOW BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR REMNANT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
SMOKE OVER WESTERN CANADA IS INGESTED INTO THE LOW AND ADVECTS
SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WARMING TREND THEN BECOMES EVIDENT
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CU SHOULD
DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. I DID ADD PROB30S TO OUR WESTERN MN SITES (AXN/RWF) FOR
LOW VFR CIGS & SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY. WIND NE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BPH
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