089
FXUS63 KMPX 051946
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY-
MONDAY.
- COOLER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARMER THROUGH MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CO/WY. MEANWHILE ALOFT, A SPLIT-
STREAM SETUP IS EVIDENT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM CYCLING AROUND
AN UPPER HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM OFF THE
BAJA COAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ATOP A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED SW-NE SITS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FROM SOCAL TO MT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FRONT IS HELPING SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL MN, BUT THE KEY IS IF ANY OF THESE RETURNS ARE ACTUALLY
REACHING THE SURFACE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 25-30 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
SUFFICIENT SATURATION TO OCCUR TO HAVE ECHOES REACHING THE
GROUND. THAT SAID, MODELS DO GRADUALLY NUDGE PWATS UPWARD FROM
0.5" TO NEARLY 1.0" THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW, WHICH HELPS
JUSTIFY THE CONSENSUS OF HAVING POPS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HEAVY PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED BUT
DISORGANIZED/INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL GENERALLY PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE PREVAILING
FEATURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
PARTICULAR, A MORE WELL- DEVELOPED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HELPING DEVELOP
THE CO/WY LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST,
WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY-MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MORE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT, ADVECTING IN
COOLER NORTHERN AIR. HIGHS FRIDAY-MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
BUMPED BACK TO THE MID 60S-MID 70S, THOUGH SATURDAY MAY FEATURE
SOME HIGHS NEAR 80 IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THESE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONCE PAST THESE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL STATES, MAKING FOR A PERIOD OF
LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NO HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY (30%) FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS AFTERNOON PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY
IMPACT AXN AND STC, LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY UNDER ANY RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BUILD IN BY LATE THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO LOWERING CIGS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, SHIFTING OUT OF THE
N/NE OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A STEADY, STRATIFORM TYPE OF
EVENT FOR KMSP, HOWEVER SHOWERS LOOK TO BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH FOR
A PREVAILING GROUP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE
OFTEN WHILE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS FALLS WITHIN THE 09-13Z TIMEFRAME,
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...MVFR BCMG VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BED
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