817
FXUS63 KMPX 061100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LIGHT, BUT STEADIER RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING, WITH SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN CHANCES WITH IT WILL COME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE
LOW.
- COLD CORE SHOWERS TO PLAGUE THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A SPRAWLING HIGH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY. ALOFT, THERE'S A POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
MN THAT IS PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR THE LIGHT RAIN WE'VE BEEN
WATCHING ON RADAR ALL NIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MOST OF US SEEING SOME RAIN THIS MORNING,
THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS AFTERNOON,
SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER WESTERN MN, WHO WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SURFACE
HEATING BEHIND THE MORNING WAVE. WHEN THE SUN SETS, WE LOSE OUR
FORCING FROM DIURNAL HEATING, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES SHIFTING OVER TO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI, WHERE THE HREF SHOWS A TONGUE OF NEAR 60 DEGREE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES SNEAKING ABOVE 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN. THERE'S NO
FORCING, SO DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WHAT
WE'RE LOOKING AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 LOW (2.5 TO 3 SD BELOW
NORMAL) WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, WITH THAT FRONT BEING DRIVEN ACROSS THE MPX AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT, THOUGH IT DOES SEEM THE POPS FROM THE NBM (CATEGORICAL) ARE A
BIT OVERDONE. THOUGH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE PV
ANOMALY WILL BE STRONG, THIS WILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG
FORCING WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER LOW HEADING FOR
NORTHERN MN, CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI WILL BE FAVORED FOR HAVING
THE BEST FORCING AND BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING A QUICK HIT OF RAIN.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FROPA, LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN,
AND WEAK CAPE, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW WITH THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COOL (HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S)
WITH OCCASIONAL COLD CORE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, THAT LOOKS TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN MN ON SUNDAY, THEN DOWN OVER OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MN INTO WI. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
FOR WESTERN WI AS THEY REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. IF YOU JUST READ THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, YOU MAY THINK WE'LL SEE A LOT OF
RAIN AS THERE'S A CHANCE OF RAIN SOMEWHERE PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE TIME (SAVE FOR THE BREAK TONIGHT), BUT DRY HOURS WILL FAR
OUTNUMBER WET HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
5-DAY TOTALS NEAR 0.75" POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR,
THAT WILL TAIL OFF TO CLOSER TO 0.25" NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.
AFTER TUESDAY, THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER CHARTS IS IT
LOOKS LIKE SUMMER. H5 HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 592DM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AS WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS OF THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. WE'LL FIND OURSELVES IN THE MODEST
ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING IN A
SEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOMING COMMON AGAIN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60S WOULD ALSO IMPLY
SOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AS WELL AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS ALL SETS US UP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER AT THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE MEANDERING THE NORTHERN CONUS THAT WOULD HAVE
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO ITS SOUTH. CPC 8-14 HAZARDS OUTLOOK
DOES SHOW A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 13TH-15TH TIME PERIOD.
THIS FAR OUT, YOU CAN'T REALLY BELIEVE IN THE DETAILS (SUCH AS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT), BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES AT LEAST POINT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK INTO FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND, WE'LL JUST BE PLAYING A
WAITING GAME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE WHERE THE DETAILS FALL
OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY END BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS POP, BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION FOR KRWF AT THIS
TIME. WINDS REMAIN AT 5KTS OR LESS IN A GENERALLY EASTERLY
DIRECTION.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...DYE
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