216
FXUS63 KMPX 070552
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FESTER OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE VERY HIT-OR-MISS & BRIEF, SO ANY
EVENING ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE HEAVILY IMPACTED. TEMPERATURES
FALL WELL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG OR MIST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.
SATURDAY STARTS OFF DRY & COOL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN, WHICH
WILL CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AGAIN THESE WILL BE WIDELY HIT-OR-MISS & BRIEF, BUT IT
WOULDN'T HURT TO BRING AN UMBRELLA WITH TO ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. LATER IN THE NIGHT, A SWATH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN COLD FRONT
HEADING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS & DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO
MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FORCING ALONG THIS
FRONT IS STRONGER THE FARTHER NORTH INTO MINNESOTA YOU GET, SO
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION & A SOAKING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH AMOUNTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH
GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SMOKE GUIDANCE
IS NOT TERRIBLY RELIABLE MORE THAN A DAY OUT, BUT IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE GET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. INITIAL MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LESS CONCENTRATED & SITUATED MORE
ALOFT THAN THE SMOKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THAT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THOSE FIRES THIS AFTERNOON & SATURDAY.
CLASSIC COLD-CORE, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY & LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A STACKED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING, ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE BRIEF & RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S & HIGHS MONDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IN THE 60S.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY, BUT REALLY KICKS IN MIDWEEK AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS & CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER & MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH MORE SUMMER-LIKE DEW POINT VALUES, AND MOST ENSEMBLE &
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AS NUMEROUS LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. STILL TOO
EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE WHEN & WHERE ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS
MAY TRACK, BUT THEY SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES & HEAVIER RAIN EVENTS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
BIGGEST TREND WE'VE SEEN WITH THE MODELS IS A REDUCED COVERAGE
IN ISO/SCT CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. THOUGH YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER AT RWF/STC/MKT/MSP/RNH,
WITH VIRTUALLY NO FORCING MECHANISM FOR ACTIVITY TO ANCHOR ON,
DECIDED TO KEEP TAFS DRY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BETTER
FORCING DOES ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AXN AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUN. THERE SHOULD
BE A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THAT PRECIP
THREAT JUST MOVING INTO STC/RWF AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD (6Z
SUN).
KMSP...YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS LOOKING SPARSE
ENOUGH THAT WE'VE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF MSP DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH A
FROPA AROUND 9Z SUN FOR MSP, SO WE'VE INCLUDED THE PROB30 FOR
TSRA FROM 7Z TO 9Z SUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR OVERNIGHT. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. AFTN -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
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